导图社区 CFA-权益
超详细的一级权益考点的思维导图来啦!总结了金融系统、证券市场、两个大类的重点知识。可以结合做题补充知识点,祝你轻松上岸!
编辑于2021-07-04 17:17:53权益 Equity
证券市场
组织与结构
金融系统
金融系统功能
1、Achieving entities purposes in using financial system 实现实体使用金融系统的目的
1·Saving 储蓄
2·Borrowing
3·Raising equity capital 提高权益资本
4·Managing risks 风险管理
5·Exchanging assets 交换资产
6·Information-motivated trading 信息驱动型交易
2、Determining equilibrium rates of return 决定均衡收益率
由市场供需关系决定
3、Capital allocation efficiency 资本配置效率 (资产配置)
市场评估与监管
市场调控的目标 The objectives of market regulation
Control fraud 反作弊
Control agency problems 控制代理问题
Promote fairness 促进社会公平
Set mutually beneficial standards 设定互利的标准
Prevent undercapitalized financial firms from exploiting their investors by making excessively risky investments 防止资金不足的金融公司通过进行风险过高的投资来剥削其投资者
Ensure that long-term liabilities are funded 确保为长期负债提供资金
运转良好的金融体系的特征
Characteristics of a well functioning financial system
Complete markets 市场的完整性
Operational efficient操作有效率
市场流动性足够好,交易成本足够低
Informationally efficient 信息有效率
Allocationally efficient aseman 资源配置有效率
金融中介
Brokers 经纪商
Brokers help clients buy and sell securities by finding counterparties 经纪人通过寻找交易对手帮助客户买卖证券
赚取佣金
Block brokers 大宗经纪商
Block brokers provide brokerage service to large traders 大宗经纪人为大型交易商提供经纪服务
Dealers 做市商
Dealers trade by buying for or selling from their own inventory, provide liquidity in the market. 交易商买卖自己的存货,在市场上提供流动性。
参与市场交易,赚差价
经纪,做市商在如何填写客户订单方面(how they fill their customers'orders)存在利益冲突
Investment banks 投资银行
Investment banks provide advice to clients and help them arrange transactions such as IPO and debt offerings. 投资银行为客户提供建议,并帮助他们安排IPO和债券发行等交易。
Securitizers 证券化商
Securitizers buy assets, place them in a pool, then sell securities that represent ownership of the pool. 证券化者购买资产,将其放入一个资产池,然后出售代表资产池所有权的证券。
Alternative trading systems(ATS)另类交易系统(类似交易所,监管少)
a k.a. electronic communication networks(ECNS)or multilateral trading facilities(MTF). 即电子通讯网络(ECNS)或多边贸易设施(MTF)。
市场分类
各维度分类
Based on delivery date 根据交付日期
Spot markets vs Futures markets 现货市场与期货市场
Based on time maturity 基于到期时间
Money markets vs Capital markets 货币市场与资本市场
Based on position and underlying 基于头寸和标的资产
Traditional markets vs, Alternative markets 传统市场与另类市场
Arbitrageurs 套利者 Clearingnouses 清算所 Custodians 托管机构 Exchanges 交易所 Depository institutions Insurance companies 存款机构保险公司
Based on capital flow 基于资本流动
Primary markets Vs Secondary markets 一级市场与二级市场
一级市场
Public offering 公开发售
IPO(initial public offerings) 首次公开发行
 IPO( initial public offerings) first-time issues by firms whose shares are not currently publicly traded. 首次公开募股(首次公开募股)公司的首次股票发行,其股票目前没有公开交易。
Underwritten offering 包销
对券商风险更大
Best effort offering 代销
对上市公司风险更大
同样条件下,券商在哪种模式下佣金手续费会更高? 如果券而承担更高凤险的话,他所要求的佣金手续费更高 (包销发行成本>代销发行成本)
Seasoned offerings(secondary issues) 增发
Seasoned offerings(secondary issues): new shares issued by firms whose share are already trading in the marketplace。 增发新股(二次发行):股票已经在市场上交易的公司发行的新股
private placement (私募/定向增发)
Private placement: corporations sell securities directly to a small group of qualified investors. 定向增发:公司直接向一小部分合格投资者出售证券. 
针对合格投资人
Shelf registration(提前注册/暂搁注册)
当公司需要资金时,当市场有利时,它们直接向二级市场出售新发行的经验丰富的证券。
Dividend reinvestment plan (DRPs) 股利再投资
允许股东将红利再投资于新发行的股票。
right offering( 股权出售)
股东有权以低于当前市场价的价格购买新股。
二级市场
按交易时段分类 Classified by trading session
Call market (集合竞价市场)
只有当市场在特定的时间和地点被拜访时,才可以安排市集。 All orders are gathered a single price is chosen to maximize volume 所有的买卖订单都被收集起来,选择一个单一的价格来最大化交易总量。
Continuous market (连续市场)
Trades are arranged and executed anytime the market is open 交易在市场开放的任何时候都被安排和执行。
对比

按交易机制分类 Classified by trading mechanism
Quote-driven markets (报价驱动市场)
·Also known as price-driven markets, dealer markets 也被称为价格驱动市场、交易商市场或场外交易市场(OTC), ·Customers trade at the prices quoted by dealers 客户按交易商提供的价格进行交易。
Brokered markets (经纪人市场)
Brokers arrange trades among their clients 经纪人在客户之间安排交易。 This service is valuable when a client has a unique or illiquid instrument for which finding a buyer or a seller willing to Brokererade is difficult。 当客户拥有一种独特的或流动性差的工具,而很难找到愿意交易的买家或卖家时,这种服务是有价值的。(例如,大宗交易)
Order-driven markets (指令驱动市场)
·Trades are arranged using rules to match buy orders to sell orders 交易是根据买卖指令匹配的规则进行安排的。 交易所和自动交易系统就是指令驱动市场的例子
Order matching rules 两套规则
1. Order matching rules 订单匹配规则
Price priority 价格优先
价格最高的买入指令和价格最低的卖出指令先交易。
Display precedence 显示优先级
以给定价格显示的数量优先于未显示的数量。
Time precedence 时间优先
在给定价格下具有相同显示状态的最早到达的订单将首先交易。
2. Trading Pricing rules 交易定价规则
Uniform pricing rule 单一定价规则
所有的交易都以相同的价格执行,从而使交易量最大化。
Discriminatory pricing rule 歧视性定价规则
最先到达的订单的限价为交易价格 连续市场,谁先挂单,对谁不利
Derivative pricing rule 衍生定价规则
订单被批量地组合在一起,并在一天中固定的时间点上以最优报价和询价的中点进行匹配。 最佳买入价和卖出价的中点进行匹配
资产分类
Financial assets 金融资产
Based on underlying characteristic 基于内在特征
Securities 证券
Fixed-income: bonds, repos, CDs 固定收益:债券、回购、存单
Equity: common/preferred shares 股权:普通股和优先股
Pooled investment vehicles close/open-ended fund, ETFs 集合投资工具封闭式/开放式基金,ETFs
Derivative contracts 衍生工具合约
Based on whether trade publicly 基于是否公开交易
Public securities
Private securities
Physical assets 实物资产
Commodities: industrial metals, agricultural products 商品:工业金属,农产品
Real assets: real estate airplanes, machinery 不动产:房地产飞机、机械
Currencies 货币
头寸
基本概念
Long positions: benefit from an appreciation in the prices of the assets or contracts owned . 多头头寸:受益于所拥有资产或合同的价格上涨 Short positions: benefit from a decrease in the prices of the assets or contracts sold. 空头头寸:从出售的资产或合同的价格下降中获益。
融券卖空
 证券出借人将抵押品投资于短期证券,并可能将获得的部分利息返还给卖空者
Short selling
与多头头寸不同,空头头寸的潜在收益不超过 100%limited to,而潜在损失是无限的 unlimited。 卖空者必须将卖空所得存入证券出借人作担保collateral
Investor borrows stock and sells it 投资者借入股票并出售
Repurchases the stock and returns it to the lender (covers the short position) 回购股票并将其归还给贷款人(回补空头头寸)
Payments-in-lieu
卖空者向证券出借人支付他们如果不出借证券就会得到的所有股息或利息
Short rebate rate
short rebate rate 短期返息率:是指投资抵押物的利率与隐性贷款费用 implicit loan fees之间的差额。 The implicit loan fees are affected by the availability of the security, the investment risk of collateral and the default risk of short sellers 隐性贷款费用受证券可得性、抵押品的投资风险和卖空者的违约风险的影响 短期退税率可能很小,甚至为负
杠杆融资
Buy on margin
investors buy securities by borrowing some of the purchase price 投资者通过借入一些证券的购买价格来购买证券
margin loan/borrowed fund :借入的贷款称为保证金贷款/借入资金
The interest rate that the buyers pay for margin loan is the call money rate(融资成本率) 买方为保证金贷款支付的利率是融资成本率
Buyer's equity买方的权益是证券价格中属于买方的部分
Financial leverage ratio 财务杠杆比率
Financial leverage ratio is the ratio of the value of the position to the value of buyers equity 财务杠杆率是指该头寸的价值与买方权益价值的比率(A。/E。)
Initial margin requirement 初始保证金要求
Initial margin requirement the minimum fraction of the purchase price that must be buyers equity 初始保证金要求购买价格中必须是买方权益的最小部分(E。/A。)
Maintenance margin requirement 维持保证金要求
Maintenance margin requirement: the minimum amount of equity in buyers position 维持保证金要求:买方头寸中权益的最低金额
Margin call 追加保证金
If the value of the equity falls below the maintenance margin requirement, the buyer will receive a request for additional equity, or the position will be liquidated 如果股本价值低于维持保证金要求,买方将收到追加股本的请求,或者该头寸将被清盘
指令
报价单
Prices quoted by dealers(market makers) 交易商(做市商)报价
Bid price 买价
买入价是指交易商愿意购买证券的价格 ·最好的出价是市场上最高的出价
Ask/offer price 卖出价
Ask/offer price is the price at which a dealer is willing to sell a security 卖出价是指交易商愿意出售证券的价格 ·The best ask/offer is the lowest ask/offer in the market 最好的报价是市场上最低的报价
Bid-ask spread 买卖价差
买卖价差是指买入价和卖出价之间的差额 ·Bid-ask spreads are an implicit cost of trading 买卖价差是交易的隐性成本
Instructions attached to orders 附于订单的说明
Execution instructions 执行指令
执行说明说明了如何填写订单
Validity instructions 时效指令
有效性指示指示何时可以填写订单
Clearing instructions 清算指令
结算指示指示如何结算交易
执行指令 Execution orders
执行指令:怎样去完成这个指令 Limit orders 限价指令: 指示经纪人立即获得可获得的最佳价格,但在买入时不接受高于规定限价的价格,卖出时不接受低于规定限价的价格 限价相对于市场价格高/低时,限价买入/卖出指令的定价是激进的 Marketable limit orders 可买卖限价订单 : 至少部分订单可以立即交易
Market orders 市价单: 指示经纪人立即以当前的最佳价格买进或卖出
优点:快
缺点:成交价格不确定
Limit orders 限价单: 指示经纪人立即以当前的最佳价格买进或卖出
限价的买价 > 市场价格P, 限价的卖价 < 市场价格P, 就叫激进
优点:成交价格确定
缺点:未必完全成交
Marketable limit orders
专有名词

Make the market
限价买单挂在最优卖价上,或者,限价卖单挂在最优买价上 不成交。
参与做市
Make a new market
最优买价和最优卖价的 区间变小了,不成交
做新市
Behind the market
低于最佳出价的限价买入指令或高于最佳出价的限价卖出指令。
Far from the market
限价买入指令远远低于最佳出价,或限价卖出指令远远高于最佳出价。
All-or-nothing orders
只有在所有尺寸都可以交易的情况下才可以交易。
要么全部成交,要么都不成交
Hidden orders (隐藏单)
只暴露于经纪人/交易所。
Iceberg orders (冰山指令)
只显示大小,其余的订单是隐藏的对公众。
时效指令 Validity Instructions
Day orders(当日有效单)
如果在交易日结束前未填满,则到期
Good-till-cancelled
一直有效, 直到成交为止
Immediate-or-cancel(Fill-or-kill)
未成交部分作废
Good-on-close orders
以收盘时点 与 收盘盘面情况去匹配
Good-on-open orders
以开盘时点 与 开盘盘面情况去匹配
Stop orders (止损单)
•For a stop sell order, the execution is suspended until a trade occurs at or below the specified stop price. 对于止卖指令,执行暂停,直到交易发生在或低于指定的止卖价格。 •For a stop buy order, the execution is suspended until a trade occurs at or above the specified stop price. 对于止损买入指令,执行暂停,直到交易发生在或高于指定的止损价格。  使用止损指令的地方: •交易员希望止损。 •交易员认为证券被低估/高估,但不愿在没有市场确认的情况下进行交易。 •止损订单增强了市场势头。
在停止价格条件满足之前不能填充。
stop sell order
止损卖单(Stop sell order)指的是当一个股价达到或低于设定的订单价格水平,该卖单变为市价卖单执行。 也就是说股票跌到—定价格就开始卖
持有者担心股票下跌,long
stop buy order
持有者担心股票上涨,short
市场指数
指数的基本概念
lndex construction steps 指数构建步骤
1、Which target market should the index represent? 该指数应代表哪个目标市场?
子主题
2、Which securities should be selected from that target market? 应该从目标市场中选择哪些证券?
3、How much weight should be allocated to each security in the index? 在指数中,每种证券应该被分配多少权重?
4、When should the index be rebalanced? 什么时候该重新平衡指数?
5、When should the security selection and weighting decision be re-examined? 什么时候应该重新审查证券选择和权重决策?
指值及回报的计算
The individual securities included in a security index are known as constituent securities 包含在证券指数中的单个证券称为成分证券
The divisor D is a number initially chosen at inception, so that the index has a convenient initial value such as 1000 除数D是最初选择的一个数字,因此索引有一个方便的初始值,比如1000
Price return index &Total return index
As time passes, the value of the total return index will exceed the value of the price index 随着时间的推移,总回报指数的价值将超过价格指数的价值
指数的用途
1、Gauges of market sentiment 市场情绪的衡量标准 2、Proxies for measuring and modeling returns, systematic risk, and risk-adjusted performance 衡量和建模回报、系统风险和风险调整绩效的代表 3、Proxies for asset classes in asset allocation models 资产配置模型中资产类别的代理 4、Benchmarks for actively managed portfolios 积极管理投资组合的基准 5、Model portfolios for such investment products as index funds and ETFS(exchange-traded funds.) 为指数基金和etf等投资产品建立投资组合模型
各类市场指数
Equity index
Broad market indices represent an entire equity market 广泛的市场指数代表了整个股票市场
Multi-market indices comprise indices from different countries 多市场指数包括来自不同国家的指数
Fundamental weighting in multi-market indices weight the securities within each country by market capitalization and weight each country in proportion to its relative GDP 多元市场指数的基本权重按市值对每个国家的证券进行加权,并按该国相对GDP的比例对每个国家进行加权
Sector indices represent different economic sectors 部门指数代表不向的经济部门
Style indices represent securities classified according to market capitalization,value, growth,etc 风格指数代表根据市值、价值、成长等分类的证券
Fixed-income index
Broad universe: fixed-income securities can be classified along many dimensions 广义:固定收益证券可以按许多维度分类
High turnover due to securities mature 由于证券到期,周转率高
股票没有到期日,周转率低
Dealer markets and illiquidity 交易商市场和流动性不足
Real estate index
Categorized as appraisal indices, repeat sales indices, and REITS indices 房地产指数分为评估指数、重复销售指数、REITS指数
Commodity indices大宗商品指数
the performance of commodity indices may be quite different from their underlying commodities 大宗商品指数的表现可能与其基础商品有很大不同
Hedge fund index对冲基金指数
Index providers rely on the voluntary cooperation of hedge funds 指数提供者依赖于对冲基金的自愿合作
May have survivorship bias 可能有幸存者偏差
指数构建的方式
Price weighting 价格加权

算法
The index value is the arithmetic average of security prices 指数值是证券价格的算术平均值
It's simply done by buying an equal number of shares of each security in the index 每只股票 买相同的股份数
Advantage: simplicity 优点:简单
缺点Disadvantage : ·Highly priced securities have a greater influence on index value 价格高的证券对指数值的影响更大 ·When a stock-split occurs, the divisor is adjusted so that the index value is maintained unchanged 当股票分割发生时,除数被调整,使指数值保持不变
市值加权 Market-capitalization weighting

Market-capitalization weighting
The weight is determined by dividing a stocks market capitalization by the total market capitalization of the index 权重由股票市值除以指数总市值来确定
Advantage:
constituent stock's weight equals to its actual market fraction 成分股的权重等于其实际市场份额
拆股不会影购市值加权
Disadvantage: firms with larger market capitalizations have a greater nfluence on the indexs value which leads to momentum tilt 市值越大的公司对指数值的影响越大,从而导致动量倾斜(惯性)
Float-adjusted market-cap weighting 流通市值加权
去除限售股,控股股东所持有的股票
The weight is determined by adjusting its market capitalization for its market float, which is the number of shares available to the investing public 该权重是通过调整其市场流通股的市值来确定的,市场流通股是指可供投资公众使用的股票数量
Free-float-adjusted market capitalization weighting 自由流通进行加权平均
再去除掉不供外国投资者投资的股票
Further reduce the number of shares by excluding shares not available to foreign investors 进一步减少股票的数量,排除不能给外国投资者的股票
等权重加权 Equal weighting

Each constituent security has an equal weight, and the index return is the arithmetic mean of HPRs on index stocks 每个构成证券的权重相等,指数收益率是指数股HPRs的算术平均值
The index is matched by investing equal dollar amount in each stock 该指数通过在每只股票上投资等量的美元来匹配
算法
Advantage
simplicity
Disadvantage
1、Small-cap bias: small-cap stocks are over-presented, because it is over-weighted and has greater volatility偏向小市值:小市值股票被超配,而且小市值股票波动性更大,那么指数的波动性
2、Requiring frequent rebalance as prices change 需要不断经常的去做再平衡
3、理论上能够编制出来,可是在现实中根本买不到
基本面加权 Fundamentally weighting
This method uses measures of a company's size that are independent of its security price to determine the weight on each constituent security 该方法使用独立于其证券价格的公司规模来确定权重
These measures include book value, cashflow, revenues, earnings, dividends, and number of employees 这些指标包括账面价值、现金流、收入、收益、股息和员工数量
It leads to indexes that have a "value" tilt 用基本面加权很有可能有“value”tilt
It leads to indexes that have a contrarian effect 它会导致指数产生反转效应
value tilt,价值倾斜,一般我们构建指数以价格或者市值进行加权,在市场投机风气盛行时,价格往往会大幅偏离基本价值,价格涨幅越大,市值增加越多,在指数中所占的比重就越大,如果以该指数作为参照构建组合,就会变成购进的往往是被高估的股票, 因此,为了修正该缺陷,就有了以基本的财务指标为基础构建的指数,此时,以该指数构建组合时,往往会挑选相对价值下降的股票即价值被低估的股票,并赋予较大的权重,相对价值较高的股票会被赋予较小的权重,由于与一般常识相反,因此被称为“逆向效应”,也叫“价值倾斜”。
概要
指数再平衡与重建
Rebalancing 再平衡
Price-weighted indexes are not rebalanced 价格加权指数不需要重新平衡
For market-capitalization-weighted indexes, rebalancing is less of a concern, because the indexes largely rebalance themselves 对于市值加权指数来说,再平衡就不那么令人担忧了,因为这些指数基本上是在自我平衡
They are only adjusted to reflect mergers,acquisitions, liquidations, etc. 它们只会根据合并、收购、清算等情况进行调整。
Equal-weighted indexes requires most frequent rebalancing 等权重指数需要最频繁的再平衡
Reconstitution 重建
Reconstitution refers to the process of changing the constituent securities in an index 重组是指指数中成份证券的变动过程
Constituent securities that no longer meet the criteria are replaced with securities that meet the criteria 不再符合标准的成分证券被符合标准的证券所取代
Reconstitution is part of the rebalancing cycle 重组是再平衡周期的一部分
市场有效性
有效市场理论
市场有效性的相关概念
Informationally efficient market: a market in which asset prices reflect newinformation quickly and rationally 信息有效市场:资产价格迅速而理性地反映新信息的市场
Passive investment strategy is preferred to active strategy due to lower costs 被动投资策略因成本较低而优于主动投资策略
跟随被动投资
Prices react only to the "unexpected"information 价格只会对“意外”信息做出反应
in an efficient market, market prices accurately reflect intrinsic values 在有效的市场中,市场价格准确地反映了内在价值
Factors that affect market efficiency 影响市场效率的因素
Number of market participants 市场参与者数量
Information availability 信息可得性
Limits to trading will impede market efficienc 限制交易将阻碍市场效率
Transaction costs and information acquisition costs 交易成本和信息获取成本
Roles for portfolio manager in efficient marke 有效市场中投资组合经理的角色
Establish portfolio risk/ return obiectives 建立投资组合的风险/回报目标
Implement asset allocation based on risk/ return objectives 基于风险/回报目标进行资产配置
Portfolio diversification 分散投资
Tax minimization 税负最小化
有效市场假说
Weak-form efficient market hypothesis 弱有效市场
可通过基本面分析和内幕交易获取超额收益
技术分析无效
Securities prices reflect all historical prices and trading volumes information 证券价格反映了所有的历史价格和成交量
Investors can not consistently earn abnormal profit using technical analysis 投资者不能通过技术分析持续获得超额利润
Semi-strong form efficient market 半强势有效市场
基本面分析无效
可用内幕消息获取超额收益
Securities prices accurately and quickly reflect all publicly information 证券价格准确而迅速地反映了所有公开信息
Investors can not consistently earn abnormal profits using fundamental analysis 利用基本面分析,投资者不能持续获得异常利润
The semi-strong form encompasses the weak-form
Strong-Form efficient market hypothesis 强式有效市场
内幕消息无效
Securities prices fully reflect both public and private information 证券价格充分反映公开信息和内幕信息
Insiders can't consistently earn abnormal returns from trading on private information 内部人士不可能通过利用私人信息进行交易而持续获得异常回报
Strong form encompasses semi-strong and weak form 强形式包括半强形式和弱形式
市场异象 Market anomalies
Market anomalies, if persistent, are exceptions to the notion of market efficiency 市场异常如果持续存在,就是市场效率概念的例外
In the wide-spread search for discovering profitable anomalies, many findings could simply be the product of a process called data mining (data snooping) 在广泛寻找有利可图的异常现象的过程中,许多发现可能只是所谓的数据挖掘(数据窥探)过程的产物
1、Time-series anomalies 时间序列异常
Calendar anomaly 日历效应
January effect / turn-of-the-year effect 一月效应
January effect / turn-of-the-year effect: stock returns in January are significantly higher compared to the rest of the months of the year 1月效应/年转时效应:1月的股票回报率明显高于一年中其他月份 • This maybe due to "tax-loss selling" and "window dressing" 这可能是由于“税损销售”和“粉饰账面”。
window dressing 粉饰账面
tax-loss selling 税损销售
Turn-of-the-month effect 翻月效应
Turn-of-the-month effect: returns tend to be higher on the last trading day of month and the first three trading days of next month 月交效应:回报率往往在每月最后一个交易日和下个月的前三个交易日更高
Day-of-the-week effect 周中效应
Day-of-the-week effect: the average Monday return is negative and lower than the average returns for the other four days 周中效应:周一的平均回报为负,低于其他四天的平均回报
Weekend effect
Weekend effect: returns on weekends tend to be lower than returns on weekdays 周末效应:周末的回报往往低于平日的回报
Holiday effect
Holiday effect: returns on stocks in the day prior to market holidays tend to be higher than other days 假日效应:市场假日前一天的股票回报率往往高于其他日子
Momentum and overreaction anomalies
Momentum 惯性效应
Momentum: securities that have experienced high returns in the short term tend to continue to generate higher returns in subsequent periods 惯性效应:在短期内获得高回报的证券往往会在随后的时期继续产生更高的回报
追涨,杀跌(与市场有效相违背)
Overreaction effect 过度反应效应
Overreaction effect: stock prices will be inflated (depressed) for those companies releasing good (bad) information 过度反应效应:那些发布好的(坏的)信息的公司的股价会被抬高(压低)
2、Cross-sectional anomalies 横截面异象
Size effect 规模效应
Size effect: small-cap stocks tend to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis 规模效应:在风险调整的基础上,小盘股倾向于跑赢大盘
Value effect 价值效应
Value effect: value stocks, which are generally referred to as stocks with belowaverage P/E ratios and P/B ratios, have consistently outperformed growth stocks 价值效应:价值型股票,通常指市盈率和市盈率低于平均水平的股票,其表现一直优于成长型股票
3. Other anomalies
Closed-end fund discounts 封闭式基金折价
Closed-end fund discounts: closed-end funds generally trade at a discount from their net asset value (NAV) 封闭式基金折价:封闭式基金一般折价于其资产净值(NAV)
Earnings surprise 收益意外
Earnings surprise: slow adjustment of prices for unexpected earnings 收益意外:价格因意外收益而缓慢调整
Initial public offerings (IPOs) 首次公开募股(IPO)
Initial public offerings (IPOs): investors able to buy IPO shares at their offering prices may earn abnormal profits 首次公开募股(IPO):投资者能够以发行价购买首次公开募股(IPO)的股票,可能获得异常利润
行为金融学
Behavioral finance attempts to explain why individuals make the decisions that they do, whether these decisions are rational or irrationa 行为金融学试图解释为什么个人会做出他们所做的决定,无论这些决定是理性的还是不理性的
个人的行为,特别是他们的行为偏差,被认为是许多定价异常现象的一个可能的解释
市场效率和资产定价模型并不要求每个个体都是理性的——相反,只要求市场是理性的
Loss aversion 损失厌恶
Representative bias 选择性偏差
Overconfidence 过度自信
Mental accounting 心理账户
Conservatism 保守主义
Narrow framing 表述偏差
Herding effect 羊群效应
information cascade 信息瀑布
可能是理性的,如果发展过度到极致,就成为羊群效应,变成非理性行为
权益投资
权益证券概述
权益资产的种类
普通股 Common shares
Common shares represent an ownership interest in a company 普通股代表公司的所有权权益
Have a residual claim on company's net assets in liquidation 对清算中的公司净资产有剩余所有权
The payments of dividend are not contractually obligation 股息的支付不是合同义务
可以选择发也可以选择不发,决定权在上市公司手中
Participate in the governance process through voting rights 通过投票权参与治理过程
Statutory voting 法定投票权
弊端:控股股东的股份数占优势,把持最后选举结果,小股东弱势
cumulative voting 累积投票
手中的股份数×选取的席位数,中小股东集合力量办大事
Proxy voting 代理投票
Proxy voting: allows a designated party to vote on the shareholders' behalf 代理投票:允许指定的一方代表股东投票
Companies can issue different classes of common shares, with each class offering different ownership rights 公司可以发行不同种类的普通股,每种普通股提供不同的所有权
同股不同权,将权力集中到少部分人手上
Callable common shares & putable common shares 可赎回普通股&可发行普通股
优先股
Preference shares rank above common shares with respect to the payment of dividends and the distribution of the company's net assets upon liquidation 在股息的支付和清算时公司净资产的分配方面,优先股优先于普通股 1、优先收到股利 2、先于普通股进行清算,列后于债权人 3、没有投票权(日常决策) 4、股利固定
Preference shares 优先股
Similar to debt securities 类似于债务证券
The dividends are fixed 股息是固定的
Do not have voting rights 没有投票权
Do not share in the operating performance of the company 不分享公司的经营业绩
Similar to common shares 类似于普通股
Preference shares can be perpetual 可以是永久性的
Dividends are not contracta obligations 股息不是合同义务
Can be callable or putable
Cumulative preference shares 累积优先股
今年红利不发放,明年累计发放
Participating preference shares 参加管理的优先股
优先股股利已经发放,轮到发放普通股时,优先股也要分一杯羹
Convertible preference shares 可转换优先股
私募股权证券
Types of private securities investment 私人证券投资类型
Venture capital investments 风险投资
Venture capital investments provide financing to companies that are in theearly stages of development and require additional capital for expansion 风险资本投资为处于早期发展阶段的公司提供融资,并需要额外的资本进行扩张。
Leveraged buyout (LBO) 杠杆收购
Leveraged buyout (LBO): investors use debt to purchase all of theoutstanding common shares of a firm 杠杆收购(LBO):投资者用债务购买一家公司所有发行在外的普通股
Private investment in public equity (PIPE) 私募股权投资
Private investment in public equity (PIPE): a public company quickly sell ownership position to private investors 公共股本中的私人投资(PIPE):一家上市公司迅速将股权出售给私人投资者
Characteristic of private securities 私募证券的特点
No active secondary markets 没有活跃的二级市场
Potentially greater return 潜在的更大的回报
Less transparent than public securities 比公共证券更不透明
Lower reporting costs 报告成本降低
Greater ability to focus on long-term prospects because there is no public pressure for short-term results 更有能力专注于长期前景,因为没有公众对短期结果的压力
存托凭证
Depository receipts (DRs) represent ownership in a foreign company 存托凭证代表外国公司的所有权
Sponsored DR 参与性的存托凭证
Sponsored DR: foreign company has a direct involvement in the issuance and investors have the same rights as the direct owners of the common shares 外国公司直接参与发行,投资者享有与普通股直接持有人相同的权利
投资者:投票权、分红权
Unsponsored DR 非参与性的存托凭证
Unsponsored DR: foreign company has no involvement with the issuance and investors have right to receive dividends, but no voting rights, which is held by the issuer of DRs 外国公司不参与DR的发行,投资者有权获得股息,但没有投票权,投票权由DR的发行者持有
投资者只有分红权
银行:投票权
American depository receipts (ADRs)
American depository receipts (ADRs) is a US dollar-denominated security that trades like a common share on US exchange 美国存托凭证(adr)是一种以美元计价的证券,在美国交易所像普通股一样交易
美元计价
Global depositary receipts (GDRs)
Global depositary receipts (GDRs) are issued outside of the company's home country and outside of the United States 全球存托凭证(GDRs)是在公司母国和美国以外发行的
美元以外计价
存在汇率风险
权益证券的风险收益特征
Risk of equity securities 股权证券风险
Preference shares are less risky than common shares 优先股的风险比普通股小
Putable shares are less risky than callable or non-callable shares 可售回股票的风险低于可赎回股票或不可赎回股票
对于投资者:Putable risk < non callable/Putable risk < callable risk
对于发行者:Putable risk > non callable/Putable risk> callable risk
站在发行公司的角度, 可卖回优先股(puttable)的风险是最高的,因为投资者可以以约定好的价格把股票卖回给发行公司。 可赎回优先股(callable preference shares)的风险最低,因为公司可以以一个约定好的价格买回投资人持股。 Non-callable优先股风险介于puttable和callable之间。
Cumulative / participating preference shares are less risky than non-cumulative / non-participating preference shares 累积/参与优先股的风险低于非累积/非参与优先股
Cumulative risk < non-cumulative risk
participating risk < non-participating risk
Return on equity (ROE)
Return on equity (ROE) is used by investors to determine whether the management is efficiently using the equity capital to generate profits 净资产收益率(ROE)被投资者用来确定管理层是否有效地利用权益资本来产生利润
Cost of equity
Cost of equity • The company's cost of equity is often used as a proxy for the investors' minimum required rate of return 公司的股权成本通常被用作投资者最低要求回报率的代理
行业分析
行业分类
Approach to identify similar companies
1. Product or services supplied 提供的产品或服务
Product or services supplied: an industry is defined as a group of companies offering similar products or services 提供的产品或服务:一个行业被定义为提供类似产品或服务的一组公司
2. Business-cycle sensitivities 商业周期敏感性
Business-cycle sensitivities: companies are grouped on the basis of their relative sensitivity to the business cycle 商业周期敏感性:公司根据其对商业周期的相对敏感性进行分组
考点
Cyclical company
Cyclical company: profits are strongly correlated with the business cycle 周期性公司:利润与商业周期密切相关
Non-cyclical company 非周期性公司
Non-cyclical company: profits are independent of the business cycle 周期性公司:利润独立于商业周期
Defensive company 防御性公司
growth company 增长型公司
Limitations 局限性
• Severe recessions may affect all companies 严重的经济衰退可能影响所有的公司
• Different regions may experience different stages 不同的地区可能经历不同的阶段
3. Statistical similarities .统计的相似之处
Statistical similarities: grouping is based on the correlations of past securities' returns 统计相似性:分组是基于过去证券收益的相关性 (用这股票当前的回报率与过去的回报率做自回归,得到相关系数,通过相关系数的统计上进行划分。)
Limitations
Often result in non-intuitive groups of companies 往往会导致公司群的非直觉性 (没有顾及到经济实质,结果没有逻辑道理)
The composition may vary by time and region 其组成可能因时间和地区而异 (统计规律会发生变化,可能会经常变动)
No guarantee that past correlations will continue in the future 不能保证过去的相关性在未来会继续下去
Carry the inherent dangers of all statistical methods 带有所有统计方法固有的危险(统计里的缺陷都会碰到)
Peer group 同类组
Peer group is a group of companies engaged in similar business activities whose economics and valuation are influenced by closely related factors 同行群体是指从事类似商业活动的公司群体,其经济和估值受到密切相关因素的影响
战略分析
波特五力分析
Porters five forces model
行业竞争的激烈程度取决于
1. Rivalry among existing competitors 现有竞争者之间的竞争
2. Threat of new entrants 新进入者的威胁
3. Threat of substitute products 替代产品的威胁
4. Bargaining power of buyers 买家的议价能力
下游的力量
5. Bargaining power of suppliers 供应商的议价能力
上游的力量
影响定价能力的因素
Barriers to entry 进入壁垒
• Industries with low barriers to entry is likely to be competitive, and often have little pricing power 进入门槛低的行业很可能具有竞争力,而且往往没有定价权 • High barriers to entry do not guarantee pricing power when: 在以下情况下,高准入门槛并不能保证定价权: 1、Price is a large component of customers' purchase decision 价格是顾客购买决定的重要组成部分 2、Companies have high barriers to exit, which means they are prone to overcapacity 企业退出的门槛很高,这意味着它们容易出现产能过剩
Market share stability 稳定的市场份额
Stable market shares typically indicate less competitive industries, and unstable market shares often indicate highly competitive industries with limited pricing power 稳定的市场份额通常表明竞争力较低的行业, 不稳定的市场份额往往表明具有高度竞争力的行业, 定价能力有限
unstable market shares不稳定的市场份额,limited pricing power 定价权越低
稳定的市场中,头部公司会占据较大市场份额。
稳定的市场,进入壁窒较高,竞争小
稳定的市场,客户对子商品的转换成本往往较高
Industry concentration 行业集中程度
• Fragmental industries tend to be highly price competitive, 碎片化行业往往具有很高的价格竞争力, ·concentrated industries do not guarantee pricing power 集中化的行业并不能保证拥有定价权 Relative market shares have a greater impact on pricing power than absolute market shares 相对市场份额比绝对市场份额对定价能力的影响更大
相对市场份额 影响更大
Industry capacity 行业产能
Under-capacity leads to more pricing power as demand exceeds supply, and over-capacity leads to price cutting and a competitive environment as supply exceeds demand 由于需求 > 供应,产能不足导致更大的定价权, 产能过剩,导致价格下降和供应 > 需求,没有太多的议价能力
Industry life cycle 行业生命周期
公司竞争策略分析
1. Cost leadership (low cost) 成本领先(低成本)
Lowest costs of production, lowest prices 最低的生产成本,最低的价格
Sell enough volume to earn superior return 销售足够的数量,以赚取卓越的回报
2. Product or service differentiation 产品或服务差异化
Distinctive in terms of type, features, quality, or delivery 独特的在类型、特征、质量或交付方面独特的
Achieve price premium 实现价格溢价
3、Focus 专注化
权益估算
现金流折现模型
股利的相关概念
Cash dividend
常规regular 现金股利
Special / extra dividends 特别/额外股息
Stock dividend
不会改变股东总财富
Stock split & reverse stock split 拆股、并股
Share repurchase 股份回购
Cash dividend payment chronology
股利折现模型
Gordon Growth Model
Assumptions 假设
The dividend growth rate is forever and never change 股息增长率是永远不变的
The required rate of return is constant overtime 所需的回报率是长期不变的
The dividend growth rate is less than the required rate of return 股息增长率低于要求的回报率
Two-stage DDM models 两阶段模型
假设公司经历一个初始的有限的高增长时期,然后是无限的持续增长时期
适用于已经走过成长阶段的公司,目前正处于过渡阶段,即将过渡到成熟期
three-stage dividend discount model 三阶段模型
三阶段股利折现模型通常适合于年轻的,处于成长期的企业估值。
Preferred stock valuation
D=par value × fixed rate
乘数模型
价格乘数模型
Price multiple
Price multiple compares the share price with some sort of monetary flow or value 价格倍数将股价与某种货币流动或价值进行比较
Price multiples based on fundamentals: the stock value is justified by fundamentals or a discount cash flow model 基于基本面的价格倍数:股票价值是由基本面或贴现现金流模型证明的
The relationship between P/E and payout ratio is ambiguous, because a higher payout ratio may imply as lower growth rate 市盈率和派息率之间的关系是模糊的,因为更高的派息率可能意味着较低的增长率
优点
Allow for relative comparisons, both cross-sectional and in time-series 允许进行相对比较,包括横向比较和时间序列比较
Price multiples are popular among investors 市盈率在投资者中很受欢迎
缺点
May generate a contradictive conclusion with those of the discounted cashflow methods 可能与贴现现金流方法产生矛盾的结论
Differences in accounting standards and/or methods can result in multiples not easily comparable 会计准则/方法的差异可能导致不容易比较的倍数
The multiples for cyclical companies maybe highly influenced by current economic conditions 周期性公司的市盈率可能受到当前经济状况的高度影响
企业价值乘数模型
Enterprise value is often viewed as the cost of a takeover 收购的时候去算企业价值
Enterprise value is most useful when comparing companies with significant differences in capital structure 在比较资本结构存在显著差异的公司时,企业价值最有用
基于资产的估值模型
Market value of equity=
market value of assets - market value of liabilities
Appropriate 合适的
Primarily tangible short-term assets 主要是有形短期资产
Assets with ready market values 市场价值易确认的资产
Firms are held privately 公司是私有的
Firms cease to operate and are being liquidated 公司停止运营并被清算
Inappropriate 不合适的
Assets that do not have easily determinable market values 不容易确定市场价值的资产
Fair values of assets and liability can be very different from their book values 资产和负债的公允价值可能与它们的账面价值有很大不同
It may understate company value with a floor"value 它可能低估了公司价值,并设定了最低“价值”
Hyper-inflationary environment 如果出现恶性通货膨胀的话,就很难估计
rights offering 配股:私下发售,只给现有股东 price placement 定向增发:私下发售,面向新投资者
IPO: 1、首次公开发行 2、面向公众(所有人都能买到)
bond index providers rely on dealers for prices. 由于大多数债券没有一个公开的市场价格,指数的构建者往往会依赖做市商的报价对债券进行估值。
弱有效市场: 技术分析,可短暂temporarily的获得收益 基本面分析 ,可获得持续的超额收益 技术分析,可获得normal/average 收益
Equity value, return and cost
puttable bond:可回售债券 :赋予债券持有人在特定日期以预先确定的价格将债券卖回给发行者的权利
callable bond :可赎回债券赋予发行人在指定到期日之前赎回全部或部分债券的权利
浮如果隐藏单的价格比显示单好,那么此时隐藏订单直接成交,(价格优先>显示优先)
The P/E ratio is inversely related to the required rate of return, and positively related to the growth rate 市盈率与要求收益率成反比,与增长率成正相关