财务分析总论

对于财务报表分析进行总体概括，明确报表分析目标、方法、对象。

OVERVIEW OF FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS 财务报表分析

• ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES
  • 1.explain business analysis and its relation to financial statement analysis 理解商业分析与财务分析的关系
  • 2.identify and discuss different types of business analysis 认识区分财务分析的两种不同方式
  • 3.describe component analysis that constitute business analysis 商业分析的组成成分
  • 4.explain business activities and their relation to financial statement 理解商业活动和财务报告之间的关系
  • 5.describe the purpose of each financial statement and linkages between them 财务报告的目标以及他们之间 的关系
  • 6.identify the relevant analysis information beyond financial statements 区分财务报告中的有用信息
  • 7.analyze and interpret financial statement analysis techniques 理解财务报告分析方法
  • 8.defined and formulate some basic valuation models 认识掌握一些基础的价值模型
  • 9.apply several basic financial statement analysis techniques 学会一些基础的财务报告分析方法
  • 10.explain the purpose of financial statement analysis in an efficient market 在有效市场中理解财务报告分析的目标
• FINANCIAL STATEMENT USERS
  • equity investors
  • creditors
  • managers
  • merger and acquisition analysis
  • external auditors
  • directors
  • employee & unions
  • lawyers
  • regulation 规则制定者
  • EVALUATE RISKS AND PROSPECTS
• PURPOSE OF BUSINESS ANALYSIS
  • 1.equity analysis 权益分析
  • 2.labor negotiations 劳资谈判
  • 3.director oversight 董事监督
  • 4.external auditing 外部审计
  • 5.credit analysis 信用分析
  • 6.management & control 管理控制
  • 7.regulation 规章制度
  • 8.financial management 财务管理
  • 9.mergers，acquisitions & divestitures 合并、收购和剥离
• MAJIOR REASONS FOR FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYZING
  • 1.determine credit value
  • 2.determine intrinsic value
• CREDIT ANALYSIS
  • 1.TRADE CREDITORS (业务往来负债)
    • 1.provide goods or services
      • 子主题
    • 2.bear risk of default
    • 3.most shorterm
    • 4.usually implicit interest（内含利息）
  • 2.NON-TRADE CREDITORS （非直接业务造成的负债）
    • 1.provide major
    • 2.bear risk of default
    • 3.most longerm
    • 4.usually explicit interest(明确利息)
  • 3.CREDIT WORTHINESS
    • LIQUIDITY（流动性） focus： 1.current cash flows 2.make up of current assets and liabilities 3.liquidity of assets
    • SOLVENCY(偿付能力) focus： 1.longterm profitabaility 2.capital structure
• PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS
  • 1.business environment & strategy analysis
  • 2.accounting analysis
  • 3.financial analysis
  • 4.intrinsic value
  • process to forecast future payoffs
• ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS
  • 1.comparability problem 类比问题
    • across firms and across time (横向和企业，纵行和历史比较)
  • 2.distortion problem 失真问题
    • 1.manager estimation error
    • 2.earnings management
    • 3.accounting standards
    • accounting risk
  • process to evaluate and adjust financial statement to better reflect economic reality
• FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
  • 1.profitability analysis （evaluate return on investments）
  • 2.risk analysis （evaluate riskiness & creditworthiness风险和信用等级）
  • 3.analysis of cash flows （evaluate source & deployment of funds）
  • process to evaluate financial position and performance using financial statements
    • ratio cash flow analysis
    • ratio analysis
    • common tool
• VALUATION
  • DIFINITION: an important goal of many types of business analysis
  • PURPOSE: estimate intrinsic value of a company (or stock)
  • BASIS: present value theory 折现(time value of money)
• BUSINESS ACTIVITIES
  • INVESTING
    • buying resources
    • selling resources
  • PLANNING
    • pricing
    • tactics
    • promotion
    • projections
    • obstacles
    • competition
    • market demands
    • distribution
    • managerial performance
    • opportunities
  • FINANCIAL
    • owner（euity）
    • nonowner（liabilities）
  • OPERATING
• INFORMATION SOURCES FOR BUSINESS ANALYSIS
  • QUANTITATIVE
    • financial statements
      • balance sheet
        • total investing=total financing=creditor financing+owner financing
      • income statement
        • revenues-cost of goods sold =gross profit=operating profit+operating expenses
      • statement of shareholders’equity
      • statement of cash flows
        • net cash flows from operating activities
        • net cash flows from investing activities
        • net cash flows from financing activities
      • Retained Earnings, Comprehensive Income, and Changes in Capital Accounts（留存收益、综合收益和资本账户变动）
      • additional information（beyond financial statements）
        • 1.management's discussion and analysis(MD&A)
        • 2.management report
        • 3.auditor report
        • 4.explanatory notes to financial statements
        • 5.supplementary infomation
        • 6.proxy statements
    • industry statistics
    • economic indicators
    • regulatory filings
    • trade reports
  • QUALITATIVE
    • management discussion & analysis
    • chairperson‘s letter
    • press releases
    • financial press
    • vision/mission statement
    • web sites
• ANALYSIS PREVIEW
  • comparative analysis
    • purpose：evaluation of consecutive financial statement
    • output：direction， speed， & extent of any trend
    • types：year-to-year change analysis index-number trend analysis
    • 例如：comparative income statements
  • common-size analysis
    • purpose：evaluation of internal makeup of financial statements evaluation of financial statement accounts across companies
    • output：proportionate size of assets liabilities， equity， revenues，& expenses
    • 例如：common size income statements
  • ratio analysis
    • purpose：evaluate relation between two or more economically important items（one starting point for further analysis）
    • output：mathematical expression of relation betwwen two or more items
    • cautions：prior accounting analysis is important interpretation is key-long vs short term & benchmarking
• 粉饰和造假的区别
  • 数据的真实性
• 盈余管理与利润操纵的区别
  • 盈余管理：合法的利润操纵 利润操纵：非法的盈余管理
• THREE ASSUMED FORMS OF MARKET EFFICIENCY
  • weak form：prices reflect information in past prices
  • semi-strong form：prices reflect all public information
  • strong form：prices reflect all public and private information
• VALUATION MODELS
  • DEBT VALUATION
  • EQUITY VALUATION
    • BASIS OF EQUITY VALUATION
    • PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN VALUATION
      • free cash flow to equity model
      • residual income model