Economics

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Economics

Microeconomics

Topics In Demand And Supply Analysis

Demand and Supply Curves

Demand curve

图形：向下倾斜直线

影响因素

Movements along: 价格变化

Shifts: 其他因素变化

Supply curve

图形：向上倾斜直线

影响因素

Movements along

Shifts

弹性

需求价格弹性（Price elasticity of denamd)

公式

分类（按数值大小）

正常情况

Elastic: |E|>1

Inelastic: |E|<1

Unit elastic: |E|=1

极端情况

Perfectly elastic

E=∞

Perfectly inelastic

E=0

性质

在同一曲线上，每一个点弹性不同

在单位弹性上，总收入最大

提高收入方法

|E|>1: 涨价

|E|<1: 降价

影响因素

Substitutes: 越容易替代，弹性越大

Relative income spend on good: 占比越大，弹性越大

时间：时间越长，弹性越大

需求收入弹性（Income elasticity of denamd)

公式

分类

Normal goods

Luxuries: E>1

necessities: 0<E<1

Inferior goods: E<0

需求交叉价格弹性（Cross price elasticity of denamd)

公式

分类

Substitute goods: E>0

Complement goods:E<0

效应

Substitution effect: X价格下降，用Y可以替代更多X，使X需求上升，一定为正

Income effec: X价格下降，购买力增强，使X需求上升，可以大于或小于0

综合影响

Normal goods: positive

Inferior goods

一般情况: positive

特殊(Giffen goods): negative

特殊商品

Giffen goods: Inferior, 需求曲线向上倾斜，Income effect>substitution effect

Veblen goods: 价格越高，需求越大

生产与成本

Profits and cost

Product,revenue and cost

Product

相关概念

TP=Q,其中TP为总产出

AP(平均产出)=TP/Labor

MP(边际产出)=ΔTP/ΔL

边际产量递减法则

Revenue

TR(total revenue)=P*Q

AR(average revenue)=TR/Q

MR(marginal revenue)=ΔTR/ΔQ

完全竞争条件: AR=MR=P

Cost

分类

FC(Fixed cost,长期), VC(Variable cost,短期)

长期与短期

短期：某些生产要素保持不变，如规模

长期：所有生产要素都可以变化

特点

1.MC(边际成本)先增大后减小 2.MC与ATC,AVC最小值相交 3.在ATC最小值点处单位成本最小，但利润不一定最大

Breakeven point analysis

Perfect competition

Imperfect competition

Economies scales

从长期来看，在各短期最小成本点进行生产，长期平均总 成本曲线是由短期最小成本点连接成的U形曲线。长期平 均总成本曲线最低点是最优生产规模，左边是规模经济 (economies of scale)，右边是规模不经济(diseconomies of scale)

The Firm And Market Structures

分类

四种市场结构比较

基本类型

比较

分类标准

Number and relative size of firms

Degree of product differentiation

Power of pricing

Barriers to entry and exit

Degree of non-price competition

供需关系与定价策略

Perfect Competition(price taker)

基本关系：短期有economic profit, 长期没有

曲线

成本与利润

短期

长期

定价:P=ATC=MR=MC

供给

动态均衡

短期

长期

Monopolistic Competition

与完全竞争市场对比

相同点

都选择在MR=MC时生产

对应长期均衡都发生在P=ATC

长期都没有经济利润

不同点

Monopolistic competition下P>MR,perfect competition下P=MR

Monopolistic competition（MC)中长期均衡ATC不是最小

MC中单个生产者面对需求曲线向下倾斜

MC会在产品创新、广告、品牌等展开竞争

曲线

短期

长期

Oligopoly

Kinked demand curve model

需求曲线

它涨别人不涨，它跌别人跟

边际收益曲线

Cournot duopoly model

Nash equilibrium model

prisoner's dilemma

Stackelberg dominant firm model

短期内小公司和大公司竞争会使大公司销量上升

Monopoly

特点

向下倾斜需求曲线

在MR=MC时利润最大

进入壁垒高

企业长期存在经济利润

是price searcher

图形

定价

获得最大利润

Single price

MR=MC=P/(1-E)，其中E为价格P时产品需求弹性绝对值

Price discrimination

对不同消费者收费不同

定价方式

平均成本定价: 有正常利润

边际成本定价: 需要政府补贴

市场集中度

N-firm concentration ratio

计算：市场份额前N个公司市场份额之和

优缺点

优点：容易计算

缺点：不能衡量前几大公司合并时产业集中度的变化

Herfindahl-Hirschman Index(HHI)

计算：市场份额前N个公司市场份额平方之和

优缺点

优点：可以衡量前几大公司合并时产业集中度的变化

缺点：计算较复杂

两种方式都没有考虑进入壁垒的问题

Macroeconomics

Aggregate Output,Prices And Economics Growth

GDP，收入与支出

GDP

概念：最终产品和服务，国内, new produced

计算方法

收入法: GDP=国民收入（National income)+资本消耗补偿(CCA)+统计误差

支出法:GDP=Y=C+I+G+X-M

sum-of value-added

Nominal and real GDP

GDP deflator

GNP: residents of a country

National income

personal income=national income-间接税-企业税-未分配利润+政府补贴

personal disposable income(PDI)= personal income-taxes

平衡关系

GDP=C+S+T=C+I+G+X-M

G-T=(S-I)+(X-M)

G-T: 财政收支平衡 S-I: 货币平衡 X-M: 贸易平衡

财政赤字来源：S增加，贸易赤字增加，资本流入等

总需求，总供给

总需求(AD)

IS与LM交点，Y=real GDP, 市场真实收入与真实利率达到均衡，该点处收入水平是AD

移动AD因素（假设以下条件改变使AD曲线右移）

消费者财富增加

企业的预期

消费者对未来收入的预期

产能利用率提高

扩张性的货币和财政政策

汇率

全球经济增长

以上因素反向变化减少总需求，使AD曲线左移

AD adjustments

Recessionary gap

Inflationary gap

Stagflation

总供给(AS)

分类

很短期总供给(VSRAS)

短期总供给(SRAS)

长期总供给(LRAS)

图形

移动因素（假设以下要素变化使曲线右移）

SRAS（假设生产要素价格不变）

劳动生产率

生产要素价格

对未来产出价格的预期

税收和政府补贴

汇率

LRAS

劳动力供给与劳动力质量(人力资本)

自然资源供应

实物资本供应

生产力和技术

以上因素反向变化减少短期或长期总供给，使两个AS曲线左移

AD,AS移动影响

一个不动

AS不动，AD左移, recessionary

AS不动，AD左移, inflaionary

AD不动，AS左移, stagflation

两个同时移动

Economic growth

来源

Labor supply

Human capital

Physical capital

Technology

Natural resources

描述方法

Potential GDP=average hours worked*labor productivity

Growth in potential GDP= growth in labor force+growth in labor productivity=growth in technology+WL(growth in labor)+WC(growth in capital)(后一个是Solow模型)

生产函数

Understanding Business Cycles

Business cycles

Four phases

Recovery

Expansion

Slowdown

Contraction

特点

Credit cycles

The economy is strong or improving

The willingness of lenders to extend credit and on favorable terms is high

The economy is weak or weakening

lenders pull back or "tighten" credit by making it less available and more expensive

从公司角度看经济周期

Workforce and company costs

Fluctuations in capital spending

Fluctuations in inventory levels

经济周期中不同主体的行为

Consumer behavior

Consumer confidience

Measures of consumption

Durable goods

Non-durable goods

Services

比较

Income growth

Saving rates

Housing Sector behavior

Available statistics

The inventory of unsold homes on the market

Median price of homes

Sentivity to interest rates and relationship to credit cycles

Interest rates

Home buying and consequently construction

Expand in lower loan interest rates

Contract in higher loan interest rates

Relationship to credit cycles

Housing prices are low relative to average incomes and when mortgage rates are also low,

The cost of owning a house falls and demand for housing increases

Housing prices and mortgage rates rise disproportionately as expansionary cycles mature, bringing on an increase in relative housing costs even as household incomes rise

Demographics factors

Household formation commonly occurs in the 25-40-year-old age group

Impact on the economic cycles

External Trade sector behavior(imports and exports)

Cyclical fluctuations

The role of exchange rate

A nation's currency appreciates

a relative rise in imports

A nation's currency depreciates

a relative rise in exports

Overall effect

Some theories of the business cycles

Neoclassical

技术改变影响AD与AS，从而改变经济周期

不干预

Keynesianism

总需求产生经济周期，认为工资有向下刚性，希望通过货币或财政政策增加AD

干预

New Keynesianism

增加对其他生产要素价格向下刚性假设

干预

Monetarism

认为中央银行货币供给应该以适当速度增长

不干预

Austrian school

认为政府参与引起经济周期

不干预

Modern approach to business cycles(RBC)

新古典经济学(包括RBC理论)、凯恩斯经济学和货币主义综合，认为央行应该通过改变利率来管理经济周期

不干预

Unemployment

分类

Frictional unemployment

Structural unemployment

Cyclical unemployment

其他概念

Unemployed(people who are actively seeking empolyment)

Long-term unemployed

Unemployment rate

Labor force

Underemployed

Voluntarily unemployed

Discouraged worker

Stopped looking for a job

计算

Participation rate=labor force/total population of working age

Unemployment rate=numberof unemployed/labor force

Inflation(a sustained rise in the overall level of prices in an economy)

一些名词

Hyperinflation:An extremely fast increase in aggregate price level

Disinflation:A decline in the inflation rate

Deflation:A sustained decrease in aggregate price level

Stagflation:经济停滞，通货膨胀

Headline inflation:includes all goods and services

Core inflation:based on a price index of goods and services except food and energy

原因

Cost push

Demand pull

衡量

CPI

计算

Price indexes

Laspeyres index:holding the composition of the consumption basket constant

Biases

Substitution bias

Upward bias in the inflation rate

Quality bias

Upward

Hedonic pricing

New product bias

子主题

Upward

Paasche index:using the current composition of the consumption basket

Fisher index

Economic Indicators

Leading

S&P 500 Index

Interest rate spread between 10- year treasury yields and overnight borrowing rates (federal funds rate)

Coincident

Lagging

Inventory–sales ratio

Monetary And Fiscal Policy

Money and inflation

Introduction

Monetary policy:central bank activities that are directed toward influencing the quantity of money and credit in an economy

Fiscal policy:government's decisions about taxation and spending

Money(barter economy)

Functions

Medium of exchange

Store of wealth

Measure of value and unit of account

Definitons

Narrow money

Notes and coins in circulation in an economy, plus other very highly liquid deposits

Broad money

Narrow+entire range of liquid assets that can be used to make purchases

Money creation process

money multiplier=1/reserve requirement

Quantity theory of money

meanings

M:quantity of money

V: the velocity of circulation of money (the average number of times in a given period that a unit of currency changes hands)

P:average price level

Y:real output

The demand and supply for money

The demand for money

Transaction

As GDP increases, transactions balances will increase

Precautionary

Precautionary balances will rise GDP as well

Speculative(portfolio)

Inversely related to the expected return on other financial assets

Directly related to the perceived risk of other financial assets

The supply of money

非均衡情况

Excess supply of money (M0 – M1)

Economic agents seek to buy bonds

The price of bonds up and the interest rate back down to I0.

Excess demand of money (M2 – M0)

Corporations and individuals seek to sell bonds

The price of bonds fall and the interest rate rise to I0.

Fisher effect

Money neutrality: increase in the money supply is thought in the long run simply to lead to an increase in the price level while leaving real variables like output and employment unaffected

Rnom is the nominal interest rate ,Rreal is real rate of interest and πe is the expected rate of inflation

Nominal interest rates

Required real return

Component compensating investors for expected inflation

Risk premium to compensate them for uncertainty

思想：真实利率相对稳定

The costs of inflation

Expected: give rise to

"menu" costs: businesses constantly have to change the prices of their goods and services

"shoe leather" costs: people tend to hold less cash and would make frequent trips to the bank to withdraw cash

Unexpected

inequitable transfers of wealth between borrowers and lenders (including losses to savings)

give rise to risk premia in borrowing rates and the prices of other assets

reduce the information content of market prices

Monetary policy

Roles of central banks

Monopoly supplier of the currency

Banker to the government and the bankers'bank

Lender of last resort

Regulator and supervisor of the payments system

Conductor of monetary policy

Supervisor of the banking system

Monetary policy tools

Open market operations

Policy rate

Reserve requirements

Monetary transmission mechanism

A rise in the policy rate reduces the aggregate demand

Objectives of monetary policy

Full employment

Sustainable economic growth

Targeting

Inflation targeting

Interest rate targeting

exchange rate targeting

Qualities of effective central banks

Independence

Target independent

Operationally independent(most central banks only)

Credibility

Transparency

货币政策种类

Neutral rate of interest= Trend growth+ Inflation target

分类

Expansionary: policy rate<neutral

Contractionary: policy rate>neutral

Limitations

Problems in the monetary transmission mechanism

bond market vigilantes: participants who might reduce their demand for long-­term bonds, thus pushing up their yields, if they believe that the monetary authority is losing its grip on inflation.

liquidity trap

Relative ineffectiveness of interest rate adjustment as a policy tool in deflationary environments

Fiscal policy

Fiscal policy and aggregate demand

Budget

Surplus

Deficit

一些观点

Keynesian: 当一个经济体存在大量闲置产能时，财政政策可以对总需求、产出和就业产生强大的影响

Monetarist: 财政政策对总需求只有暂时的影响，而货币政策是抑制或增加通胀压力的更有效工具

分类

Discrectionary

Automatic stabilizers

Objectives

Overall level of aggregate demand in an economy and the level of economic activity

Distribution of income and wealth among different segments of the population

Allocation of resources between different sectors and economic agents

Tools

Spending tools

Transfer payments

Current government spending

Capital expenditure

Revenue tools

Direct taxes

Indirect taxes

The disirable attributes of a tax policy

Simplicity

Efficiency

Fairness

Revenue sufficiency

Advantages and disadvantages

Advantages

Indirect taxes can be adjusted almost immediately

Social policies can be adjusted almost instantly by raising such taxes

DIsadvantages

Direct taxes are more difficult to change without considerable notice

Capital spending plans take longer to formulate and implement

Modeling the impact

Fiscal multiplier

Balanced budget multiplier

Ricardian equivalence

the reduction in current taxation will have no impact on spending because individuals save more in anticipation of higher future taxes to repay the bond

Difficulties in executing fiscal policy

Time lags

Recognition lag

Action lag

Impact lag

Other issues

Misleading economic statistics

Crowing out effect: 政府支出增加使私人消费后投资减少

Supply shortages

Limits to deficits

Multiple targets

The relationships between monetary and fiscal policy

Easy fiscal policy/tight monetary policy

Tight fiscal policy/easy monetary policy

Easy fiscal policy/easy monetary policy

Tight fiscal policy/tight monetary policy

用IS-LM曲线移动判断影响

International Finance

International Trade And Capital Flows

International trade

Basic terminology

GDP/GNP

Trade

Imports

Exports

Differences

Net exports(E-I)

Trade surplus(E>I)

Trade decifit(E<I)

Restrictions or not

Free trade

Trade protection

Price

Domestic price

World price

Kinds of economy

Autarky(closed economy)

Autarkic price

Open economy

Terms of trade

T=the price of exports/the price of imports

Foreign investments

Foreign direct investments(FDI): by a firm

Multinational corporation

Foreign portfolio investment(FPI): by individuals,firms and institutional investors

Benefits and costs

Benefits

Economies of scale

Product variety and increased competition

More efficient allocation of resources

Increases overall welfare

Costs

Greateer income inequality

The loss of jobs in developed countries

Two kinds of advantages

Absolute advantage

At a lower cost or use fewer resources in its production

Comparative advantage

Opportnuity cost is less than its trading partner

Two models

Ricardian model

Labor is the only (variable) factor

Differences in labor productivity, reflecting underlying differences in technology, are the source of comparative advantage and the key driver of trade

定价

The terms of trade are closer to its partner's autarkic prices than to its autarkic prices

Heckscher–Ohlin model(factor-­proportions theory)

Two factors of production: labor and capital

Differences in the relative endowment of these factors are the source of a country's comparative advantage

A country has a comparative advantage in goods whose production is intensive in the factor with which it is relatively abundantly endowed, and would tend to specialize in and export that good

Labor is relatively abundant

Export relatively labor-­intensive goods

Import relatively capital-­intensive goods

Capital is relatively abundant

Export relatively capital-­intensive goods

Import relatively labor-­intensive goods

Trading blocs(按开放程度由低到高)

1. Free trade areas(FTA)

All barriers to the flow of goods and services among members have been eliminated

2. Customs union

1+Creating a common trade policy against non-memb­ers

3. Common market

2+Free movement of factors of production among members

4. Economic union

3+Common economic institutions and coordination of economic policies among members

5. Monetary union

4+dopt a common currency

Restrictions

Trade restrictions

种类

Tariffs

A small country is the price taker

A large country has influence on world price and can increase its welfare if

Its trading partner does not retaliate

The deadweight loss is smaller than the benefit of improving its terms of trade

B+D is the deadweight loss

Quotas

Import license

Quota rents

Voluntary export restraint(VER)

Export subsidies

Domestic content provisions

原因

Protect new industries(infant industry) and established domestic industries fromforeign competition

Protect strategic industry for nation security reasons

Retaliation against trade restrictions imposed by other countries

Capital restrictions

Benefits of free movement of financial capital

Bring in capital, technology, skills, and advanced production and management practices

Create a network of local suppliers

方式

Taxes

Price controls

Quantity restrictions

目标

减少国内资产价格波动

保持汇率稳定

保持较低国内利率

保护战略性产业

Balance of payments(BOP)

内容

Current account

Merchandise trade and services

Income receipts

Income from ownership of assets, such as dividends and interest payments

Income on foreign investments

Unilateral transfers

One-­way transfers of assets

Captial account

Captial transfers

Debt forgiveness

Migrants' transfers

Title to fixed assets

Funds linked to the sale or acquisition of fixed assets, gift and inheritance taxes, death duties, uninsured damage to fixed assets, and legacies

Sales and purchases of non-produced, non-financial assets

The rights to natural resources

The sale and purchase of intangible assets

Financial account

A country's assets abroad

Official reserve assets

Government assets

Private assets

实例：gold, foreign currencies, foreign securities, the government's reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, direct foreign investment, and claims reported by resident banks

Foreign-ow­ned assets in the reporting country

Official assets

Other foreign assets

实例：securities issued by the reporting country's government and private sectors (e.g., bonds, equities, mortgage-b­acked securities), direct investment, and foreign liabilities reported by the reporting country's banking sector

How the decisions by consumers, firms and governments affect the BOP

公式

Y = C + I + G + X – M

CA = X – M = Y – (C + I + G) CA: Current account

Sp + Sg = I + CA Sp denotes private sector saving, Sg is government savings

CA = Sp + Sg – I

影响

Current account deficit reflects a strong domestic economy

A persistent current account deficit leads to a permanent increase in the claims held by other countries against the deficit country

Foreign investors may require rising risk premiums for such claims, leading to a depreciating currency

Trade organizations

International Monetary Fund(IMF)

Provides a forum for cooperation on international monetary problems

Facilitates the growth of international trade and promotes employment, economic growth, and poverty reduction

Supports exchange rate stability and an open system of international payments

Lends foreign exchange to members to help them address balance of payments problems

From an investment perspective, the IMF helps to keep country-­specific market risk and global systemic risk under control

Word Bank Group(Word Bank)

组成

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)

Lending to developing countries is primarily financed by selling AAA-ra­ted bonds in the world’s financial markets

International Development Association (IDA)

Interest-f­ree loans and grant assistance to the poorest countries

功能

Strengthen their governments and educate their government official

Implement legal and judicial systems that encourage business

Protect individual and property rights and honour contracts

Develop financial systems robust enough to support endeavours ranging from micro credit to financing larger corporate ventures

Combat corruption

扶贫

World Trade Organization（WTO)

历史

Founded on 1 January 1995, replacing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

The GATT was the only multilateral body governing international trade from 1947 to 1995

功能

Implementation, administration, and operation of individual agreements

A platform for negotiations

Settle disputes

The only international organizaion dealing with the global rules of trade between nations

Currency Exchange Rates

Foreign exchange market

表达方式

A/B, A为标价货币，B为基础货币，例如 1.502 USD/EUR表示1EUR价格是1.502USD

以标价货币国投资者的角度是直接标价法，对基础货币国投资者是间接标价法

名义汇率与实际汇率之间的关系

市场功能与参与者

市场功能

Spot transactions

Spot exchange rates

交易方式: 一般是"T + 2" delivery,意思是在交易双方同意后的两个工作日内进行货币兑换

Forward contracts

Forward exchange rates

FX swap

参与者

Sell side

Large FX trading banks

Buy side

Corporate accounts

Real money accounts(investment funds managed by insurance companies)

Mutual funds

Pension funds

Endowments

Exchange-­traded funds (ETFs)

Other institutional investors

Leveraged accounts(professional trading community)

Hedge funds, proprietary trading shops, commodity trading advisers (CTAs), high-f­requency algorithmic traders, and the proprietary trading desks at banks—and indeed, almost any active trading account

Retail accounts(散户)

Governments

Investment funds

Pension plans

Central banks

计算

Cross-rate

远期汇率

公式

数量关系(base currency)

Forward discount: forward rate is lower than the spot rate

Forward premium: forward rate is higher than the spot rate

Exchange rate regimes

Introduction

The ideal currency regime

The exchange rate between any two currencies would be credibly fixed

All currencies would be fully convertible

Each country would be able to undertake fully independent monetary policy in pursuit of domestic objectives

实际情况: 不能同时实现以上三个目标(不可能三角)

Historical perspective on currency regimes

Throughout most of the 19th century and the early 20th century until the start of World War I

Classical gold standard

During the 1930s

Gold standard was abandoned

From the end of the war to the early 1970s

Fixed parities for exchange rates between currencies

By 1973

Flexible exchange rates

In the early 1990s

Limited flexibility, the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)

In 1999

A common currency for most Western European countries

分类

无自己的货币

Dollarization

Monetary union

有自己的货币

Currency board system: fixed

Fixed parity: There is a band of up to ±1 percent around the parity level within which private flows are allowed to determine the exchange rate.

Target zone: ±2 percent around the parity

Active and passive crawling pegs: The exchange rate was pre-announc­ed for the coming weeks with changes taking place in small steps

Fixed parity with crawling bands :maintains a fixed parity with slowly widening bands

Managed float: intervene or not to achieve trade balance, price stability, or employment objectives

Independently floating rates: the exchange rate is left to market determination

Exchange rates and the trade balance

Introduction

X – M = (S – I) + (T – G)

X > M

A fiscal surplus (T > G), an excess of private saving over investment (S > I), or both

常见方法

弹性法

Marshall–Lerner condition: 进出口需求弹性绝对值之和大于1时，货币贬值可以减少贸易赤字

J-curve

reflects the order delivery lags that take place in import and export transactions

吸收法

BT=Y-E，其中BT为（X-M），E为（C+I+G），即总吸收