4Forecasting

ACCA，f2,第四章思维导图，本期数字之和/基期数字之和x%=物价指数

Forecasting

• Correlation
• Scattergraphs
• Linear regression
  • Advantages and disadvantages
    • Gives a definitive line of best fit
    • Makes efficient use of data and good results can be obtained with relatively small amounts of data
    • Many processes are linear and so are well described by regression analysis Disadvantages
    • Assumes linearity betweenx and y
    • The observations used may be atypical
    • Historic data is used and patterns may change in future
    • Each observation should be independent from the others
    • Forecasting usually involves extrapolation outside the given range of observations where working conditions and therefore cost patterns may change
• Time series analysis
  • Advantages
    • Trend lines can be reviewed and assessed after each period for reliability, possibly leading to improved forecasts with experience.
    • Time series components and theory is relatively easy for non-financial managers to understand.
  • disadvantages
    • The further into the future the forecast the more unreliable it's likely to be.
    • The less data available on which to base the forecast the less reliable the forecast.
    • The pattern of trend and seasonal variation cannot be guaranteed to continue.
    • There is always the danger of random variations upsetting the pattern of trend and seasonal variation.
• Index numbers
  • 本期数字之和/基期数字之和x%=物价指数