risk uncertainty

在管理会计的决策制定过程中，企业往往面临未来结果不明确的情况，因此必须对风险与不确定性进行系统分析。根据 ACCA MA 课程内容，风险是指某一决策可能产生多种可量化的结果，且每种结果的发生概率可以合理估计；而不确定性则指未来结果虽有多种可能，但其发生概率无法可靠判断，通常由于缺乏历史数据或环境高度变动所致。在存在风险的情况下，管理者可通过概率分布来评估不同方案的预期回报，并借助期望值（Expected Value）作为决策依据，即各项结果的可能收益与其对应概率的加权平均。期望值提供了一个客观的量化参考，有助于在多个选项中进行比较，但它不考虑决策者的风险偏好，也无法反映结果的波动程度。为了更全面地评估风险，还可结合其他绩效判断标准，如最大可能结果、最坏情况下的最小损失（悲观准则）、最好情况下的最大收益（乐观准则）以及折中态度下的赫威兹准则等，这些方法虽简单，但在信息有限时具有实用价值。面对风险，企业可采取多种策略加以应对，包括风险规避（放弃高风险项目）、风险降低（通过多样化或内部控制减少波动）、风险分担（如购买保险或合作开发）以及风险接受（在可控范围内承担）。而在不确定性较强的环境中，

limiting factor decision （基于throughput法）

• single factor单因素
  • 四步走
    • 1. identified bottleneck
      • 1||| demand during the specific period
        • product A
        • product B
        • product C
        • contract（preference）
          • 常考文字题，discuss breach this contract
            • 1.If CSC Co would not complete fully this order，then may not enter into a regular supply order and the sales revenue in the future also would be lost. 2.There would exist legal consequence such as penalty involving breaching the order.It would be costly. Involved不是involving 3.If other customers know CSC Co breach the order causally,they will become reluctant to order products from CSC Co. If CSC Co become known as a supplier who cannot be relied on to stick to the terms of its agreement,this could have negative impact to other supplier. 4.The customer base and reputation would help to increase awareness of entity. Encompass health may have customer base and reputation，it would help to increase awaress of their product,so it is bad for breaching this contract. 总结的话语：Therefore，taking these factors into account，it would not be advisable to breach the contract
          • 其他考法：第二种方案最多可以承受的penalty， 第二种方案的利润-第一种方案的利润
      • 2||| resources per unit needed
      • 3||| total resoures needed
      • 4||| available和needed谁大？
    • 2. rank
      • 1||| contribution per unit
      • 2||| contribution per bottleneck
      • 3||| rank
    • 3. total contribution
    • 4. total profit=total contribution-fixed overheads
• 常考的小概念
  • shadow price
    • maximum premium=shadow price
      • 是binding contraints
        • contribution per bottlenecks
          • 比如说每个小时的人工成本可以让你的contribution多10元，那么 多一个小时的contribution就是10.
      • 不是binding contrains （常常在这里设陷阱）
        • shadow price=0
    • maximum price=maximum premium+original price
  • slack(结合图像一起考） slack values/slack variables
    • 考定义
      • A "slack" occur
        • ①the availablity of a resouce is more than required /a resouce is not being fully utilised.
        • ②demand of products can not be fulfilled/satisfied.
    • 让你分析slack的resouces有哪些
      • 第一步
        • 先找出optimum point，optimum point的两条函数是bottlenecks 其他的函数就是slack value
          • Since the optimum point is intersection of line 1 and line 2，so xxx is slack values。
      • 第二步
        • 解释属于哪种情况下的slack
          • Firstly
            • xxx is slack values,this means xxx not be fully utilised
          • Secondly
            • xxx is slack values，this means there will be unfulfill demand for xxx
  • surplus
• multiple factors 多因素（graph法）
  • 会列方程
    • 定义变量（define the variables）
      • x=the number of product A， y=the number of product B， z=the number of product C， k=total contribution
    • 方程有哪几种
      • objective function（iso-contribution line或者叫total contribution line）
        • 文字题会问你这个目标方程是多少？2 marks
          • 首先要回答每个产品在每个约束条件下的contribution。 Since product A provides a contribution of xxx per hour and product B provides a contribution of xxx
          • 总结：the objective function is "".
      • contraints
      • demand
      • non-nagativity
  • 如何找到”feasible region/area“
    • 定义（文字题）（文字题）必考
      • In the "feasible area" ,any points can be selectd and this region show a feasible of mix produciton of product A and product B.
      • To maximum profit,the optimum mix production will be at the point on the edge of area.
  • 如何找到完美的optimum usage of resoures/optimum mix production
    • 法一：联立方程。using simultaneous equations.(一定要会写，文字题）
    • 法二：To maximize the contribution/minize variable cost，keep total contribution line away from the origin as possible
    • 描述这个点的位置，不能简单的回答这个点pointA.补充说明：the intersection of xxx line and xxx line.

short-term decision making

• 是否需要关闭某个产品线
  • 如果题目是求报表上的net loss,注意单位
    • 用列出报表的方式
  • 如果题目问的是是否应该close（shut down）的问题
    • incremental cash inflow
    • incremental cash outflow
    • incremental profit
  • shut down某一条产品线的好处和坏处（文字题）other considerations
    • the satisfaction of customers
      • lose a stable customer base，future revenue would be lost，upset the customers，reputation will be suffered，can not provide a stable service
• 是否需要进行further processing
  • 格式
    • incremental revenue
    • incremental expense
    • incremental profit
  • 小概念
    • joint products/by products
      • 公共成本只给主产品分摊，不给副产品分摊
    • joint costs（common costs或者pre-separation cost）
      • irrelevant
• 是否需要外包？外包谁？
  • 是否需要外包的问题（buy or make）
    • cost of make
    • cost of buy
    • 最后两者进行比较
  • 在有limited factors的情况下，有些产品需要buy，有些产品需要nake，①需要如何安排生产顺序？②有哪些、需要多少产品要make？③外包的好处和坏处
    • caculation的核心思想
      • step 1
        • • saving cost per unit越大月越应该先生产
      • step 2
        • ranking
    • other considerations 标题+中心+案例
      • 内部internal
        • the resonableness of estimates
          • if the estimates are based on very limited data,it would be hard to say how accurate they are like to be.
        • the reliability of estimates
          • whether the estimates is too optimic
        • the consideration of assumption
          • if the assumption of cost behavior is too easy,then the calculation of relevant cost may not be accruate.
      • 外部external
        • employees
          • reduandancy of employees
            • It would cause the redundancy of employees,it may be
        • customers
          • satisfaction of customers
        • competitors
    • 外包的好处和坏处（文字题）
      • adv
        • economics of specializing organization means that it can saving cost.
        • management can concentrate the core activity
      • disadv
        • confidentially data/information/of current product信息的机密性
        • decrease in management'control失去管理层的控制effect quality影响质量
        • redundancy of employees,influence the employee's satisfaciton

CVP analysis

• single product（只需要把握好 两个方程、两个图像） BEP
  • profit= volume*CPU-fixed cost
    • CPU:contribution per unit
    • breakeven of volume（how many）
      • 文字题：so the company needs to sell more/less products to cover costs
    • safety of margin=y/budgeting volume 数字越大，情况position越安全
      • • 文字题：this is an increase on the current position and the hotel's position appears safer
  • profit=revenue*CPU/selling price-fixed cost
    • break of revenue（how much）
    • safety of margin=y/budgeting revenue
    • 1-C/S
      • variable cost/selling price
  • 和坐标系有关的词汇
    • 斜率
      • gradient
    • 截距
      • intercept
    • 实线
      • solid line
• mutiple products total BEP
  • 按比例买（constant-mix），最好写成分数
    • weighted average CPU
    • weighted average of C/S ratio
  • 按顺序卖/in turn）
    • minimum revenue
      • C/S最高的先卖，breakeven of revenue达到最小值
      • 计算
        • 核心：total contribution=fixed cost
          • 步骤
            • 先卖A
              • contribution是多少
              • revenue是多少
            • 后卖B
              • contribution是多少
              • revenue是多少
• CVP的优劣
  • adv
    • 1.Graphic charts can represent the relationship of variants like fixed cost，sales volume，revenue.So it can be easy for non-financial managers to understand.容易理解
    • 2.A breakeven model enables profit or loss at any level of activity for which the model is Vaild to be determined and the C/S ratio can indicate the relatively profitable of different products.容易展现盈亏关系和谁更赚钱
    • 3.Highlighting the breakeven point and the margin of safety gives managers some indication of the level of risk involved.注意BEP和MOS都能帮我们的管理者更好的面对风险
  • disadv
    • 1.This calcalation assumes that fixed cost remains the same. In fact,the fixed cost is likely to be step fixed cost and it means the fixed cost will increase with higher volume of production
    • 2.This calculation assumes that contribution keeps the constant.In fact,sometimes firms wish to use the lower prices to attract customers and bulk discount will also may decrease variable cost.
    • 3. This calcualation assumes that C/S remains unchangeg.However,customers purchase's habits is effected by advertising and price,and the sale mix would be change from time to time.
• Financial effect经济影响
  • CPU
  • FC
  • VC
  • selling price

pricing desicion charge high/low prices？

• 图像法（三线） 定价
  • demand curve需求曲线
    • P=-bQ+a
  • Marginal revenue
    • revenue:PQ=-bQ^2+Q*a 求导后：marginal revenue=-2bQ+a
  • Marginal cost=variable cost
    • total cost = variable cost per unit *Q+total fixed cost 陷阱：看到OAR或者budgeted production level，都是 当成variable cost。
    • 很少考的知识点
      • learning curve 每一个零件都是越做越快的
        • f(Q)=aQ^-b
          • a表示做第一个零件需要的时间
          • 求第1000个零件需要的时间
            • f(1000)是做1000个零件平均需要的时间
            • f(999)是做999个零件平均需要的时间
            • f(1000)*1000-f(999)*999=第1000个零件需要的时间
  • 定价
    • MR=MC
      • optimum point：maximum profit
        • 算出Q，算出P，算出revenue，算出cost，最后得出profits
    • MR=0
      • maximum revenue
• 图表定价
• 其他定价策略price strategies
  • 文字题：用哪个更好
    • skimming price
      • 总
        • XXX is more suitable than XXX. Using Skimming price stratergy，high price would be initially charged for products rather than low prices
      • 分
        • 1.The product is new and different，the customers are prepared to pay high price to be one up on other people who do not own it.解释（since/because+引用原文）
        • 2.The strength and sensity of the price to denmand is unknown.It is better from the point of veiwing of marketing to start by charging high prices and then reduce them if the demand for the product turns out to be (price) elastic than to start by charing low prices.
        • 3.High price at early stage of product is easy to generate high cash inflows and the firm with liquidity problems prefers to use skimming price strategies.
        • 4.High price at early stage of products can recover the cost of research and development as quickly as possible so as to make a profit
      • 总
        • Recommendation Given to the natural of this products and ……，a market skimming pricing strategic would be more appropriate.
    • penetration price
      • 总
        • penetration price. Using penetration price,low price would be charged for products rather than high price.
      • 分
        • 1.Low price charged for the products can discourage new entrants from enter into market.不是to是from，discourage……from
        • 2.This product have significant economic of scale to be achieved from a high volume of output.
        • 3.The firm wishes to shorten the initial period of the products's life cycle in order to enter into a growth and maturity stages as quickly as possible.
        • 4.demand is highly elastic and so would respond well to low prices.
      • 总
        • Recommendation Given to the natural of this products and ……，a market penetration pricing strategic would be more appropriate.
  • 客观题
    • price discrimination价格歧视
      • 广州的猪肉和河南的猪肉价格不一样。 中国的价格和美国的价格不一样。
    • product price pricing产品线定价
      • 基于整个产品线定价whole ranges rather than single products
    • complementry product price互补产品定价
      • 用便宜的产品吸引人
    • relevant cost 定价
      • marginal cost
      • full cost
      • total cost=production cost+non-production cost
      • relevent cost
      • standard cost
      • 优劣
        • adv
          • 容易应用easy to apply
          • 不需要一个需求方程，不需要展示价格和需求的线性关系。
        • disadv
          • 忽略了需求对对于价格的影响
          • 忽略了市场的因素market factors, external factors
          • AC(Full cost)需要精确的计量OH和activity levels
• elasticity
  • calculation
    • b的倒数
  • 都是形容demand的。英文表达的时候说： demand is high elastic/inelastic.
    • high elastics
      • elastic>1
        • 小米手机，价格一下降大家都买
          • 降价，revenue提升
    • inelastics
      • elastic<1
        • 大米、酱油，降不降都得买
          • 提价，revenue下降
    • 使得elasticity下降的三大要素
      • 1. 收入income，收入占比越低，弹性越低，富人、穷人，高收入、低收入都要买。
      • 2. 刚需degree of necessity
      • 3. 替代平少，大米和酱油的替代平都少。 availability of alternative products
  • 特殊情况

risk&uncertainty

• define
  • risk
    • have relevant past experience
  • uncertainty
    • have little relevant past experience
• risk performence
  • risk averse
  • risk seeker
  • risk neutral(经常不会拼写）
• deal with risk
  • 1. expected value
    • 文字题
      • 重点考不足
        • 1.It ignores the investor's attitude to risk.It is only suitable to risk neutral.
        • 2.Its accuracy depends on a lot of experiments.If there is only limited data or information of the products's sales.
        • 3.It ignores the influence of probilities detribution and only have an average expected outcome.
        • 4.not useful for one off contracts.
        • 5.It depends on the accuracy of the probilities.
    • 计算题
      • y1
        • p1*z1+p2*z4+p3*z7
      • y2
      • y3
  • 2. maxi-min
    • 以列为单位找最小，然后以行为单位找最大
  • 3. max-max
    • 以列为单位找最大，然后以行为单位找最小
  • 4. min-max regret
    • 要是我没做这个决策的话
      • 以行为单位找最大
      • 以行为单位算出每一个后悔值
      • 以列为单位找最大，然后挑出最小的
  • 5. value of perfect information
    • 最完美的情况-expected value
• techiques for dealing uncertainty
  • decision tree决策树
    • decision1:y1
      • p1
        • z1
      • p2
        • z4
      • p3
        • z7
    • decision 2:y2
      • p1
        • z2
      • p2
        • z5
      • p3
        • z8
    • decision:y3
      • p1
        • z3
      • p2
        • z6
      • p3
        • z9
  • sensitive analysis
    • 1. 求谁设谁为x。
    • 2. 令profits为0，那么新的x是多少
    • 3. new-old/new（或者old）看题干怎么问
    • 4. 找到关键变量，变量越小越要管理
      • 改变一点点，就要亏了