acca f9 business valuation和risk management

本思维导图聚焦 ACCA（特许公认会计师公会）《财务管理》（Financial Management，原F9科目，现为FM）中 Part F：Business Valuation（企业估值） 与 Risk Management（风险管理） 的核心知识点，系统梳理考试高频考点，帮助学员掌握企业估值的基本逻辑、常用方法及影响股价的关键因素，同时理解市场效率与风险管理在财务决策中的应用。内容严格依据 ACCA 官方考纲与学习指南编写，表述准确、结构清晰，适用于ACCA学员备考复习与知识体系构建。 一、Business Valuation（企业估值） 1. 为什么要进行企业估值？ 企业估值在以下情境中至关重要： 企业并购或收购（Mergers & Acquisitions） 股票上市（IPO）或退市 股东退出或股权转让 企业重组或分拆 管理层绩效评估与激励机制设计 投资决策分析（如是否值得投资某公司） 2. 市值（Market Capitalization） 定义：Market Cap = 每股市价 × 已发行普通股股数 是衡量上市公司规模的重要指标，反映市场对公司整体价值的评估 举例：若某公

Part F business valuation

• market efficiency
  • 定义（3个features）
    • 1. allocative efficieny
      • use the most profitably
    • 2. operational efficiency
      • minimum transcation cost
    • 3. information processing efficiency
      • relect all the relevant and available information
  • 分类
    • information鄙视链：internal(private)>pubilc>past>no information·
    • no efficieny market(no information)
      • technique analysis
        • represent past information
        • the history always repeats itself/repeating patterns appear to exist
    • weak form market(past) overtime
      • fundamental analysis
        • follow a random walk
    • semi-strong market(public)
      • insiders
    • strongform market(internal)
      • no one can get abnomal gain
      • the lack of regulation on use of private information(insider dealing内部交易）
      • adv
        • timing of issues
        • dividends
        • window dress accounting
        • any attempt to change the market's view on risks or rewards of capital instrument made by the company
    • market efficieny hypothesis
• 影响share and market price 的factors
  • practical factors（3个）
    • 1. marketability and liquidity of shares
      • 一般来说价格越低、流动性越好的股票，价格越可能虚高
    • 2. market imperfections and pricing anomalies
      • seasonal effects and short run overreaction
    • 3. market capitalization
      • small size company 的the rate of return 更高，因为risk 更高
  • psychological factors（6个） 行为金融学financial behaviors
    • 1. market paradox
    • 2. herding effect
    • 3. bubble
    • 4. nosie trader
      • "professinals"
    • 5. loss aversion
    • 6. momentum effect
• 为什么要business valuation
  • unlist company 未上市的公司为什么要估值 要注意不能谈到和税相关的，估值往往是站在投资者的角度，而投资者是无法抵税的，所以说不考虑税收的原因， The securities needs to be valued for corporate taxation purpose.这句话不是估值的原因，这句话是错的。
    • 1. go public
      • go to the market for additional finance
    • 2. decide the value of shares sold by sharehols想要把部分的股票转让出去
    • 3. acquisition收购 bidder needs an offer price
    • 4. value the shares when the shares are used as collaterals(抵押） for a loan
  • list company 上市公司的股价如何计算
    • market capitalization=equity market value=share price*sharesnumbers 注意，此时的股价不一定反映真实的市值
• business valuation的方法 常出现一个词叫market capitalization， 其实就是市值的意思，share price*shares numbers
  • asset basis（三个思路）
    • MV per share=net assets/股数
    • 比较适合的情况
      • asset-stripping acquisition一拨一拨资产分开卖的情况
    • how to calculate net assets
      • historic basis
        • BV of equity
      • break-up basis（liquidity basis） （我要贱卖出去）deprival value
        • net assets=NRV- BV of liabilities
        • seller 可以接受的minimum price
      • going-concern（别人来收购我）
        • net assets=replacment value of total assets-BV of the liability
        • buyer 可以接受的maximum price
  • income basis（两个思路）
    • 1. MV= P/E ratio*EPS
    • 2. MV=earning/earing yield; MV=earning(1+g)/earning yield-g
      • earning yield是P/E ratio 的倒数
      • earning=PAIT- preference shares dividends/股数
      • P/E ratio的值越大，说明股价要涨了（The company is expected to grow.)
  • cash flows basis（两个思路） 站在投资者的角度：r=the return of rate； 站在融资者的角度：ke=cost of capital. r=ke
    • 1. DVM（dividend valuation models） （抓住本质，未来的现金流折现到现在的价值就是MV）
      • 使用情况
        • 适用于评估（value）小股东（minority shareholdings)的股权,因为只有minorities shareholding才有资格影响dividends 的发放，不适合holding a controlling interest in a company，NCI是股份占比比较少的股东， NCI：non controlling interest。反之，CI是股份占比 比较多的股东。
      • 分类
        • 1||| fixed
          • MV=interest/r
        • 2||| stable growth
          • MV=D0(1+g)/（r-g）
            • 前提
              • 无限的，n 年
              • 时间轴的问题
          • 注意cum/ex
            • ex
              • has just been paid
                • 意味着“0”没有流入钱，不需要加到最后的股价
            • cum
              • is about to paid/there is a dividend to be paid/is shortly to be paid 打算付
                • 意味着“0”有流入钱，加到最后的股价
        • 3||| mixed
      • 局限性（挺喜欢考的）
        • 1. investors make rational decisions.
        • 2. dividends show either constant growth or zero growth.
        • 3. g<r,cost of equity 大于diviends growth rate
    • 2. dicounted CF
      • 就是复杂化r，实际上就是WACC

Part G risk management

• foreign exchange rate risk management
  • what is foreign exchange rate risk？（3个）
    • transaction risk(真正需要管理的）
    • economic risk(管不了）
    • translation risk（不需要管）
      • an exchange loss at $100,000 is expected to occur after consolidating the results of the subsidiary into MC's group accounts.
      • 凡是看到什么合并报表、外资子公司、合并之后产生loss or profit都是translation risk
  • fundamental foreign exchange rate theory S0:current spot rate S1:future（expect）spot rate F0：forward exchange rate
    • 1. purchase power parity(PPP) （三步走），适合long-term，交易成本低，所有商品同质化identical
      • 研究S0和S1之间的关系
      • 和inflation有关通胀越高，贬值越厉害
    • 2. interest rate parity(IRP)
      • 研究S0和F0之间的关系
      • 和interest rate有关，越高贬值越厉害
    • 3. expectationary theory
      • S1是F0的unbaised predictor，意思是二者数值是一样的
    • 4. international fished effect
      • 1+nominal rate=（1+real rate)(1+inflation rate)
    • four-way equivalence
      • 
  • how to manage
    • internal（4个）
      • 1. use domestic currency receivables
      • 2. matching
      • 3. lagging
      • 4. leading
    • external
      • 1. money market hedge
        • receivables
          • step1
            • 借外币，使其“本+利”等于需要偿还的钱
          • step2
            • 将借来的外币换成本币
          • step3
            • 本币存入银行，等到收到receivables 的时候就将其取出， 这个时候“本币＋利息”是我提前锁定的外汇价值
        • payables
          • step1
            • 借本币，借的本币加利息是我提前锁定的外汇价值
          • step2
            • 本币⬅外币
              • 这个地方最容易出错，除以一个大的数
          • step3
            • 外币deposit进入bank，使其外币的"本+利"等于paybles
        • appraisal
          • adv
            • expensive
          • disadv
      • 2. derivatives
        • 1||| forward（太简单了）
          • process
            • i. 12月1日提前锁定交易价格为1元
            • ii. 12月31日是现货市场变为2元
            • iii. 那么bank 多支付我1元
          • appraisal
            • adv
              • OTC、tailored、all currencies
            • disadv
              • expensive、inflexible、can not enjoy favorable exchange rate movement
        • 2||| future
          • choice（怕什么方向就做什么方向）
            • do short（sell the future and buy in the future）
            • do long（buy the future and sell in the future）
          • appraisal
            • adv
              • flexible、exchange
            • disadv
              • limited currencies、can not enjoy favorable exchange rate movement
              • imperfect hedge
                • amount imperfect
                • basis risk（基差风险）
                  • basis=现货价值-期货价值
                  • 根本原因：basis不能一直保持不变。只有basis一直保持不变的时候，才能完美对冲
        • 3||| option（是一个right)（option是最喜欢 考优缺点的）
          • choice
            • call option
              • gives the owner the right to buy an asset at a fixed price.相当于做多
            • put option
              • gives the owner the right to sell an asset at a fixed price.相当于做空
          • appraisal（必须拿下）
            • adv
              • 1||| set lower limit
              • 2||| buyer can take advantages of favorable movement of the underlying asset price
            • disadv
              • 1||| option premium is expensive
              • 2||| options needs to be paid as soon as they are bought
              • 3||| only limited currencies
              • 4||| 有定制、也有不定制的，不定制的就是lack negotiability
        • 4||| swap
          • long-term
          • exchange cash flows
• interest rate risk management
  • what is interest rate risk management(2个） 补充：interest rate对冲的不可能三角
    • 1. amount
      • gap exposure
    • 2. basis基准
      • basis risk
    • 3. maturity
  • why will occur interest rate risk
    • the yield curve
      • normal
        • 随着years to maturity的增加，这个interest rate增加
      • abnormal（inverted）
        • • 补充内容
            • government repurchase bonds
              • supply of money
                • short-term interest rate
            • government issue bonds
              • supply of money
                • short-term interest rate
          • an inverted yield curve can rise if government policy is to keep short-term interest rates high in order to bring down inflation.
    • theories to explain yield curve
      • liquidity preference theory
        • 
        • short term investors dominate the market，the most investors prefer liquidity.horizions/preference
        • deferred consumption(延迟消耗） requires increased compensation as maturity increases.
      • expectionary theory
        • 
        • forward rate equals the market concensus expectation of the future interest rate
      • market segmentation theory
        • discontinuing
  • how to manage
    • internal （3个）
      • matching
      • smoothing
      • asset and liability management
    • external
      • derivatives
        • 1||| forward（FRA）forward rate agreement
          • process
          • appraisal
        • 2||| future
          • 抓住定义
            • An interest rate future is a future contract with an underlying instrument that bears interest.
          • choice（选择题会让你判断的）
            • do long
              • sell the interest rate future
                • 怕r
                  • MV of underlying instrument
                    • future contract
            • do short
              • buy the interest rate future
                • 怕r
                  • MV of underlying instrument
                    • future contract
          • appraisal
        • 3||| option
          • choice
            • call option
              • buy the interest rate
            • put option
              • sell the interest rate
          • other
            • cap
              • set a maximum interest rate（for borrower）
            • floor
              • set a minimum interest rate（for lender）
            • collar（这个喜欢考选择题）
              • borrower/borrowing
                • buy a cap and sell a floor
                  • set a maximum and a minimum range
              • lender/receivables
                • sell a cap and buy a floor
          • appraisal
        • 4||| swap
          • long term exchange cash flows、not one off transaction