The Right It

这是一篇关于The Right It的思维导图，主要内容有Part I: Hard Facts、Part ll: Sharp Tools。

The Right It

• Part I: Hard Facts
  • 1: The Law of Market Failure
    • Most new products will fail in the market, even if competently executed.
      • Failure is an inevitable by-product of innovation.
      • A small percentage of products fail in the market because they are poorly launched or built; the majority fail because they are the wrong product idea to start with.
    • It's important to be explicit about your success criteria before you get started.
    • The Success Equation
      • Right A × Right B × Right C × Right D × Right E, etc. = Success Where A, B, C, D, E, etc., are key factors for success.
  • 2: The Right It
    • Thoughtland: You cannot determine if an idea is The Right It just through thinking. Not through your thoughts. Not through the thoughts and opinions of others. Not through the thoughts of “experts.”
    • The Four Trolls of Thoughtland
      • Lost-in-Translation
        • The way you imagine the new product and its uses may be completely different from the way other people will imagine it after you describe it to them.
      • Bad at Making Predictions
        • People are notoriously bad at predicting whether they would actually want or like something they have not yet experienced—as well as how or how often they would actually use it.
      • No-Skin-in-the-Game
        • People love to give their opinions and advice; most of us do that without much thought if we have no skin in the game—because we’ve got nothing to lose or gain either way.
      • Confirmation-Bias
        • Our (very human) tendency to seek evidence that confirms our existing beliefs or theories and to avoid or dismiss anything that runs counter to them.
  • 3: Data Beats Opinions
    • Good Data
      • Fresh
      • Strongly Relevant
      • Know Provenance
        • Only trust data that are collected by yourself.
      • Stastically significant
        • 100-1000 samples is good.
    • YODA (Your Own DAta)
      • Market data collected firsthand by your own team to validate your own idea. To qualify as YODA, the data must satisfy the criteria of freshness, relevance, trustworthiness, and significance.
• Part II: Sharp Tools
  • 4. Thinking Tools
    • Clarity of thought is paramount. If your new product idea is vague, imprecise, ambiguous, or open to multiple interpretations, then you don't have a solid foundation for going forward.
    • MEH (Market Engagement Hypothesis)
      • MEH identifies your key belief or assumption about how the market will engage with your idea. Will they want to learn more about it, explore it, try it, adopt it, buy it? And if they adopt it, try it, or buy it, how are they going to use it and how often? Will they buy it again or recommend it to friends? In other words, the MEH articulates your vision of how the market will respond to and use your idea. People can be very creative and will usually find a solution once they have hard evidence (not just belief or hope) of market demand for their product. Formulating the precise definition and finding proof of existence of that market demand are exactly what the Market Engagement Hypothesis is designed to help us do. It’s an important tool and a nonnegotiable first step in beating the Law of Market Failure.
      • Say it with numbers
        • Nothing removes fuzziness from your thinking like numbers; and the best part is that those numbers can be just rough estimates at first.
        • At least X% of Y will Z.
          • X: How big a slice, what percent, of our target market can we capture? Y: What is our target market? Z: How and exactly to what extent will the target market engage with our product?
            • At least 10% of coin laundry users will pay $5 extra to have their laundry picked up and returned within twenty-four hours.
            • At least 5% of people without air conditioning will buy a $20 air-cooling gizmo when the average temperature gets over 100 degrees.
            • At least 15% of dog owners will add a six-pack of beer for dogs for $4 when they buy dog food.
    • Hypozooming
      • An simplified version of MEH that is testable right now and representative of the MEH.
        • Be aggressive with hypozooming, but make sure that you don't zoom in so close that you are left with a sample size too small to be statistically significant.
  • 5. Pretotyping Tools
    • Pretotype: designed primarily to validate, quickly and cheaply, if an idea is worth pursuing.
      • Prototypes are primarily designed to test if an idea for a product or service can be built, how it should be built, how (and if) it will work, what's the best size or shape for it, and so on.
      • Three Key Requrements:
        • Produce YODA with skin in the game. Can be implemented quickly. Can be implemented cheaply.
    • 1. The Mechanical Turk
      • Ideal for situations where you can replace costly, complex, or yet-to-be-developed technology with a concealed human being performing the functions of that supposedly advanced technology.
    • 2. The Pinocchio
      • Pretent to use a fake cardboard product for a consistent period of time.
    • 3. The Fake Door
      • You can get some data on how many people would be interested in your idea by putting up a front door (e.g., an ad, a website, a brochure, a physical storefront) to help you pretend that the product or service exists when, in fact, you have nothing to offer quite yet. If you can't get enough people to knock on your product’s front door (i.e., to show interest in your idea), then you go back to the drawing board and review your ideas and your hypotheses.
    • 4. The Facade
      • Differs from the Fake Door in one important respect—when potential customers knock on that door or click that “Buy” button, someone answers and something happens. They may even get precisely what they were looking for.
        • e.g. Early Amazon fulfills online orders by sending books bought from book stores instead of from their facade inventory.
    • 5. The Youtube
      • Video informercial
    • 6. The One-Night Stand
      • If you want 100 data points and you can get them in one day or with a single experiment, then make it one day and one experiment.
        • e.g. Run a mini version of your service for one day.
    • 7. The Infiltrator
      • Sneaking your product into someone else’s existing sales environment (it could be physical stores or online) where similar products are normally purchased to see if people will be interested enough to put some skin in the game and buy it.
    • 8. The Relabel
      • Takes advantage of the fact that with a minor change in external appearance, we can leverage an existing product or service to pretotype a new product or service. By putting a different label on a product, you can pretend that it’s something other than what it is—and see if people are interested in it.
  • 6. Analysis Tools
    • The Skin-in-the-Game Caliper
      • The more the customer invests in your idea, the more significant the data.
    • The TRI Meter
      • If the data significantly exceeds what the hypothesis predicts, you point the arrow to Very Likely. If the data meets or slightly exceeds what the hypothesis predicts, you point the arrow to Likely. If the data falls a bit short of what the hypothesis predicts, you point the arrow to Unlikely. If the data falls really short of what the hypothesis predicts, you point the arrow to Very Unlikely. Finally, if the data is for some reason ambiguous, potentially corrupted, or hard to interpret, you point the arrow to 50/50 or optionally discard it. After all, even in science not all experiments produce clean and reliable data.
  • 7. Tactics Toolkit
    • 1. Think Globally, Test Locally
    • 2. Testing Now Beats Testing Later
    • 3. Think Cheap, Cheaper, Cheapest
    • 4. Tweak It and Flip It Before You Quit It