特许金融分析师LVL 3

这是一篇关于特许金融分析师LVL 3的思维导图，主要内容有cognitive errors (faulty reasoning)、emotional biases (intuition)、Classification等。

Level 3

• behavioral finance
  • cognitive errors (faulty reasoning)
    • belief perserverance biases
      • representativeness bias
        • overweight new information
          • base rate neglect
          • sample size neglect
      • illusion of control
        • believe that they can influence the outcome, but in face they can not.
      • convervatism bias
        • overweight past information
          • cognitive cost
      • hindsight bias
      • confirmation bias
        • overweight positive information
    • information processing biases
      • framming
      • achoring and adjustment
        • stick too closely to their original estimates when new information is learned.
      • mental accounting
        • treat one sum of money differently
      • avalibility bias
        • retrievability
        • catagorization
        • narrow range of experience
        • resonance
  • emotional biases (intuition)
    • loss aversion
      • disposition effect
      • myopic loss aversion
    • overconfidence
      • illusion of knowledge bias
      • self attribution bias
      • prediction overconfidence
      • certainty overconfidence
    • status quo
    • self-control bias
      • people faile to act in persuit of their long-term goals because of a lack of sel-decipline
    • endowment bias
      • overweight the asset value when they hold it.
    • regret aversion
      • herding
  • Classification
    • barnewall two way model
      • active
      • passive
    • BBK five way model
      • adventurer
      • celebrity
      • individualist
      • guardian
    • pompian four way model (mainly based on risk tolerance
      • passive preserver
      • friendly follower
      • independent individualist
      • active accumulator
  • limitation of classification
    • exhibit both cognitive errors and emotional biases
    • exhibit charateristics of multiple investor types
    • behavioral changes as they age
    • require unique treatment even in the same investment type
    • act irrationally at different times without predictability
  • behavioral factors affect
    • adviser and client relations
    • portfolio construction
    • analyst forcasts
    • company's management on analysis
    • committee dynamics
    • market behavior
• CME
  • framework
    • framework for developing CME
      • specify the expectation needed
      • research the historical records
      • specify the method/model and the information requirements
      • determine the best source for information needed
      • interpret the current investment enviroment
      • provide the expectation needed and document conclusion
      • monitor the actual outcomes and improve the process
    • challenges in forecasting
      • 数据挑战
        • limitations of economic data
          • revise
          • rebase
          • time lag
        • data measurement error
          • transcription error
          • survivorship bias
          • apprasial data
      • 时间挑战
        • the limitations of historical data
          • regime changes
            • use high frequency data
              • asychrony
        • expost risk can be a biased measure of ex ante risk
        • biases in analyst's method
          • data mining
          • time preoid, results are time specific
  • forecasting asset class return